Potential Impact of the Latino Electorate in the 2010 Elections.

Data released by the Tomás Rivera Policy Institute at the University of Southern California reveals the potential significance of the Hispanic vote in selected states. As the data indicate, a shift of 2.3% Hispanic voters in California to another statewide party or candidate results in that candidate increasing their percent of the overall vote and conversely decreasing the percentage of the vote for the opposing candidate. Utilizing U.S. Census data from the 2008 elections, the Institute researchers calculated the percent of the Hispanic vote needed to make a 1% shift in the statewide election in the 8 states with the largest Hispanic population.

These numbers are particularly significant given the polarized nature of the Hispanic electorate on issues such as enforcement of immigration laws by local law enforcement agencies. Harry Pachon, PhD, President of the Institute stated, “Various national surveys indicate that while sixty plus percent of the general electorate favor local immigration enforcement, close to three out of four Hispanics oppose such policies due to fear of discrimination. Will Hispanic voters remember this issue in the fall and associate it with parties or candidates when general elections are held in November?”

The Hispanic vote has increased dramatically in the past decade from approximately 5.9 million voters to 9.7 million, or a 64% increase. The general electorate, in contrast, increased by 16%.

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For more information at http://www.trpi.org/>