Bush & Kerry Show Momentum As Campaign Gathers Pace.

The latest AP/Ipsos Public Affairs poll shows that while Bush has pulled slightly ahead of Kerry in the head-to-head race, both candidates have momentum. Bush is getting points from the electorate for an improving economic climate and for handing over power in Iraq. Kerry is strengthening support among his voters, and the addition of John Edwards to the Democratic ticket appears to have given him a boost in the South.

Bush has taken a slim lead over Kerry in the July AP/Ipsos poll, after five months in which the two candidates have been running neck and neck. Bush has gained ground since last month among men under 45 (62% now, 52% in June) and also suburban women (52%, from 41%). Regionally, Bush’s support in the Northeast has risen slightly (45%, from 38%). NOTE: all results shown are percentages unless otherwise labeled.

Americans are evenly divided on Bush’s overall handing of the presidency, largely in keeping with polls taken over the course of the year. For explanations of the recent rise in support for Bush, it is better to look at his performance on specific policy areas.

Approval of Bush’s handling of the economy continues the advance it has made since March. At present, the public is split evenly, although with an increase in those who “strongly approve” of his economic policies (29%, from 23% in March).

Increased economic optimism is also reflected in the Consumer Attitudes and Spending by Household (CASH) index, which has risen month-on-month since hitting a low in April this year (84.8; 92 now). This resurgence is being powered by the public’s rising expectation of improved economic performance over the coming months. The outlook for jobs remains fairly stable. In addition, the public has also improved its view of Bush’s handling of other domestic issues (46%, up from 41% in June and on par with 45% in March).

• For the first time, approval of Bush for his handling of the economy (49%) is on a par with approval for his handling of foreign policy and the war on terrorism (51%).

• At the extremes, strong approval of Bush’s handling of the economy (29%) is on a par with strong disapproval (31%)—as recently as last month, far fewer voters gave strong approval (23%) than strong disapproval (30%) on his performance in handling the economy.

• On has handling of other domestic issues, fewer approve overall (46%) and at the extremes, only 20% strongly approve and 36% strongly disapprove his handling of health care, education, the environment and energy issues.

• People are more optimistic now than they were in May about job market prospects.

Another factor behind Bush’s more positive ratings is his handling of the situation in Iraq (47% approve, 43% in June, 46% in May). The handover of power on June 28th appears to have given people confidence that progress is being made and that Bush is keeping his word on transferring responsibilities for governance to the Iraqis.

That said, not all the advantage in the current political climate is going to Bush. Although Bush still leads Kerry in the South (52% vs. 45%), Kerry has made some advances in the region since June (39%). Kerry’s national support has remained stable, and nearly two-thirds of his backers now say they will “definitely” vote for him in November – up from 55% last month and placing Kerry’s definite support on par with that for Bush.

Kerry’s selection of John Edwards as his running mate has been received positively, but without much of an immediate effect on levels of support. The differences between the findings from Monday and those from Tuesday and Wednesday, after the announcement was made, are statistically insignificant. Moreover, adding the vice-presidential candidates to the ticket has
remarkably little effect on either overall support or strength of support.

The shift toward Bush in this poll is evident even despite the continuing preference for Democratic control of Congress observed since March this year, and the prevailing view that the country is headed down the wrong track.

The Associated Press Poll is conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. Between July 5-7, 2004, the AP/Ipsos poll interviewed a representative sample of 1,000 adults nationwide, including 804 registered voters. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 for all adults, +/- 3.5 for registered voters. Margin of error for subgroups may be higher.