The Latino Vote In Key States.

Latino voters in electoral vote-rich states such as Texas, Florida and California can make a statewide electoral vote outcome difference if as few as 3-4% of Latino voters switch parties or change their candidate preferences, according to an analysis of recently-released Census data on the 2004 election, conducted by the Tomás Rivera Policy Institute (TRPI) at the University of Southern California. Percent of Latino vote1 needed to make a 1% shift in statewide elections for top 10 Latino states in 2004

“This information should be particularly significant to both Democratic and Republican party office holders running for statewide offices,” stated Harry P. Pachon, Ph.D., TRPI President and Professor of Public Policy at the University of
Southern California. “If President Bush was able to garner forty-plus percent of the Latino vote in 2004, while Senator Dole was only able to secure Latino voter support in the low-20 percent range, this represents a six point swing in overall election results in states like California or Texas, and even in smaller states such as New Mexico.”

Previous TRPI research has revealed that the growth of the Latino vote in recent years has come about as a result of two factors: young Latinos coming of voting age and newly- naturalized immigrants.

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For more information at to http://www.trpi.org.

1 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, November 2004
2 When added to or subtracted from the estimated total number of Latino voters, this number produces the
90% confidence interval.
3 TRPI calculations based on 2004 Current Population Survey