More locals feel urge of moving to the States.

Number of people with relocation plans rises again to 24%

As numerous CARIBBEAN BUSINESS reports have anticipated, the number of Puerto Ricans considering moving away has consistently been on the rise over the past six years. Already, there are 1.5 million more Puerto Ricans living outside of the island than are still living in Puerto Rico, according to the latest U.S. Census—which includes the estimated 500,000 who have recently relocated to the mainland U.S.  During the past six years that Gaither International has conducted the relocation survey, respondents have been asked specifically if they are considering moving out of Puerto Rico.

Results from the latest CARIBBEAN BUSINESS/WOSO Radio/Gaither poll confirm the troubling trend has continued and the percentage of those who want to leave the island has doubled since March 2009. 

In fact, according to the relocation survey conducted in October, 24% of Puerto Rico residents, or roughly 900,000 people, are now considering moving away, compared with only 12% who were contemplating such a move two years ago.
The survey, which consisted of 970 face-to-face interviews among an islandwide representative sample of adults, has a statistical margin of error of ±3.15%.

People on the move

“This year’s survey results are consistent with opinions voiced in the 2008 poll, when 26% of locals said they were considering moving away,” said Beatriz Castro, vice president of Gaither International. 

When Gaither gathered up results in 2009, the percentage obtained was extremely low, considering that only a few years before, well over one-third of families were considering moving away, Gaither’s Castro added. In fact, up until 2006, 36% of families in the island were considering migrating to the U.S. mainland—the highest in recent years. 

In 2007, this percentage slightly decreased to less than one-third (32%) of homes that were seriously entertaining the idea, followed by the 2008 results that showed the percentage of those considering moving out of the island had significantly decreased to about one-fourth of the families. 

“The drop in the number of families thinking of relocating is consistent with the time period when the mainland U.S. economy dipped into recession,” noted analyst Edwin Aquino, director of the commercial division of marketing firm SymphonyIRI. “Many Puerto Ricans who wanted to relocate couldn’t find a job, or many who had relocated were impacted by the housing crisis. These factors discouraged many families from moving away at that time.”

By 2009, numbers were significantly below the 2008 relocation percentages. Only 12% of families were thinking about leaving, “which represents a 22% gap between 2007 and 2009,” Castro said.

“Nevertheless, the number of locals who are thinking about moving away has resurged,” she added.

“This surge in the number of families considering relocation is consistent with the minor signs of improvement in the mainland U.S. economy,” Aquino noted.

Demographic storm

Add to the surge in the number of families wanting to move away from the island, a shrinking and aging population, and you have the makings of the perfect demographic storm. 

U.S. Census 2010 figures point out there has been a 2.2% population decrease in the past decade, the first time Puerto Rico’s population has shrunk between consecutive census counts. 

“If we take into account the natural population growth, we are estimating that almost 500,000 Puerto Ricans moved off the island in the past 10 years,” Castro said. “What is troubling from this poll is that the migration doesn’t seem to be over. One-fourth of the remaining population is seriously considering moving off the island.”

The recession, lack of employment opportunities and rising security concerns seem to be playing a major role in families deciding to move away from Puerto Rico.

“The relative ease of moving to the mainland U.S. makes this migration feasible for many,” Castro noted. “This is shown in the 2011 poll results, which point out that the vast majority of respondents who are considering moving out of Puerto Rico, 94%, would move to the U.S. mainland, while 4% said they would move elsewhere, and 2% didn’t know. Meanwhile, stateside, most of the Puerto Ricans considering relocation would move to Florida (27%), New York (12%) and New Jersey (6%).”

Moving right away

Another troubling survey finding is that a significant percentage of those considering a move are thinking of doing so in the near future. In fact, three out of 10 said they are planning to leave within the next year, while 8% are aiming to move within the next six months. Another 28% is thinking about leaving in the next two years, and 22% in three years or more. The poll also noted that 28% are undecided or unaware of when they would leave. 

Different strokes 

Previous Gaither polls on the same subject have proved that this “wish” varies among subgroups, mostly based on different demographic criteria. For example, poll results based on age show that local residents older than 55 are less likely to want to stay in Puerto Rico indefinitely—this has been consistent throughout the years. 

“It could be true that older respondents are already well established with careers, families and homes, perhaps not as willing to start over in a completely different place, whereas younger respondents might have less to be attached to and are just starting out their careers and families, where moving would be more viable,” Castro noted.

Consequently, with these findings, the younger the respondent, the likelier they are to be considering a move from Puerto Rico. Since 2009, when the amount of respondents from ages 18 to 35 who considered moving was 16%, there has been an increase of 23% in this category to date. Regarding those younger than age 35, today’s results are more consistent with survey findings in 2007, when 45% of that age group was considering moving away. The comparable rate for the recent poll was 39%. 

Brain drain 

Well-educated respondents are more likely to consider moving away than less-educated respondents; 34% of college graduates in the recent poll were considering doing so, compared with 19% of those with high school diplomas and 17% who hadn’t graduated from high school. The rate for those with a college education was only 14% in 2009.

At present, though not by huge differences, respondents with high socioeconomic levels are likelier once again than those with lower income levels to have the desire to leave, with 28% of locals with high incomes considering doing so, followed by 23% with midlevel and lower incomes.

“The demographic of the Puerto Rican that desires to leave the island is the most troubling finding yet,” Aquino said. “In the past 10 years, we have experienced a brain drain, where the migrator’s profile has been young, educated, professional and from higher socioeconomic backgrounds. The numbers for this poll confirm that the brain drain is far from over. The profile of the islander still planning to leave is the same.” 

Top reasons to move

The top reason Puerto Rico residents cite for wanting to move away is the island’s economic situation (48%), followed by the “general condition/situation” of the island (29%). 

Some 27% of respondents in the study stated they would move in search of a “better quality of life,” while 23% of local residents cited the “crime situation” as their main driver. Employment and education also ranked among the top reasons for relocation, with 13% and 9%, respectively. 

Despite the wave of negative headlines, violence and crime didn’t appear among the top reasons for relocation in 2008, scoring only a small 8% of responses compared with today’s 23%.

Another factor was the political situation on the island, with 4% of Puerto Rico residents experiencing political fatigue as they observe politicians’ inability to jumpstart Puerto Rico’s economic development.

The recent poll numbers indicated that an overall feeling of dissatisfaction with living in Puerto Rico weighed heavily on islanders’ decision to relocate. 

For more information at http://www.caribbeanbusinesspr.com