SNL Kagan releases 2009 Outlook.
March 1, 2009
According to SNL Kagan’s updated “Radio/TV Station Annual Outlook,” radio and TV revenues will continue to fall in 2009 but are expected to regain some ground over the long term.
In 2008, the broadcast sector suffered deep declines as the recession intensified, with radio revenues down 10.0% to $17.7 billion and local and national spot TV ad revenues dropping 6.9% to $20.1 billion. SNL Kagan estimates 2009 revenues will slide even further, with declines of at least 15.0% for radio and 15.7% for TV stations anticipated.
SNL Kagan forecasts a turnaround in 2010, with modest growth through 2013 offsetting some of the declines of 2008-2009. In the five-year outlook, SNL Kagan expects radio revenues to decline by a CAGR of 1.9% and TV revenues to drop 2.0%.
Markets in Michigan are projected to grow the slowest, with mass automotive industry layoffs placing the future of the big three automakers in jeopardy. The Detroit market is expected to decline 16.3% for radio and 17.7% for TV in 2009, with a five-year CAGR of _2.9% and _4.4% respectively.
At the other end of the spectrum, Washington, DC tops the list of markets showing the least attrition with a five-year CAGR of _0.4% for radio and _0.2% for TV, due to a massive increase in Federal government spending and the migration of laid-off banking professionals to jobs in the public sector. San Diego is a close second, with a CAGR of _0.4% for radio and _0.5% for TV.
“The outlook for 2009 indicates another grim year for broadcast revenues,” said Robin Flynn, senior analyst at SNL Kagan. “Those radio and TV station owners who are able to reduce expenses while continuing to transition their business models to develop digital assets and non-traditional revenue streams will survive and reemerge as more efficient operations. If broadcasters have an advantage over Internet companies, it is their reach within local communities, and their financial success will depend on how they work to meet the needs of the local market.”
For more information at http://www.snl.com
