TNS – October Same-Store Sales Decline.

Retail same-store sales declined 0.6% in October for about 40 retailers reporting monthly results today, TNS Retail Forward reports.

October’s result is down from a 1.3% sales-weighted composite increase reported last month and down from the 1.7% increase reported in October of 2007.

“Shoppers are focusing on necessities and on finding the best deals as they cut back their spending. And that will continue through the holidays,” said Frank Badillo, Senior Economist at TNS Retail Forward.

October’s results were led by weak positive results at Warehouse Clubs and Discount Department Stores. The declines were deep at Apparel and Accessory Stores and Department Stores.

The weak results are foreshadowing weak holiday spending plans reported by shoppers in the latest TNS Retail Forward ShopperScape survey fielded in October after the federal financial bailout passed Congress (Figure 1):

* Half of shoppers (50%) reported in October that they plan to spend a lot less or somewhat less on holiday gifts this year compared with last year. That’s a big jump from the 31% of shoppers that planned to spend less at the same point a year ago.

* Just 7% of shoppers plan to spend a lot more or somewhat more on holiday gifts. That’s down from 13% that planned to spend more a year ago.

Discount stores, supercenters and warehouse clubs are among the few retail channels that are not being cut from the list of planned stops for holiday shopping. Otherwise, shoppers are narrowing the number of store types where they plan to shop (Figure 2).

* Discount stores/supercenters not only top the list of retail channels that shoppers plan to shop for the holiday, but they also have as many shoppers this year planning to do their holiday shopping at them as last year. Other lines of trade offering savings—warehouse clubs, factory outlet stores and small-format value stores—are also retaining their popularity with shoppers.

* Fewer shoppers are planning to buy via non-store channels—online and catalogs—although free shipping deals could be enough incentive to shift shoppers’ plans.

* Department stores and other apparel-related channels will face challenges as significantly fewer shoppers plan to shop those channels this year.

* Even channels focusing on leisure products, which have performed better than other channels, face the prospect of fewer shoppers. Consumer electronics, sporting goods stores and gadget/gift stores show declines in the percentages of shoppers intending to fulfill their holiday lists at them.

Among product categories, the video game category is the most notable exception to the cutbacks planned by shoppers. Otherwise, the cutbacks span a broad array of product categories (Figure 3)

* Exceptions to the planned cutbacks include the popular category of video games, video gaming systems or related accessories and less popular categories of home décor or home-related furnishings and plants/wreaths/flowers.

* Gift cards, clothing, toys and books remain the most popular gift categories in the same order as last year, but all face a significantly smaller share of shoppers planning to make purchases of those categories.

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