Hispanic pinpoint Iraq, economy, healthcare & education as key issues in 2008 election.

A survey just released by Avanze, Inc. of San Diego, California in partnership with ImpreMedia provides an updated look at the state of mind of the Hispanic electorate, less than one month before the kickoff of the 2008 election cycle at the Iowa caucus. The survey polled Hispanic registered voters in the top five U.S. Hispanic states on issues that they consider key in their decision making on Election Day 2008. Additionally, it identifies the current presidential candidate preferences of Hispanics, and distinguishes important potential opportunities for both parties, with an eye towards how political parties and candidates can best speak to this population segment.

Asked on an open-ended basis the top five issues that registered Hispanic Democrat, Republican and Independent voters expect to take into account when they decide for whom to vote, these are, in order of priority, the war in Iraq, immigration, the economy, healthcare and education.

The recent survey presents data that shows that Democrats are currently leading the battle for presidential candidacy support with Hillary Clinton carrying the support of 42% of all registered Hispanics surveyed. Looking at the individual parties, Rudy Giuliani tops the list among registered Hispanic Republicans, with a 23% preference followed by Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney, all with slightly less than 5% support. Among Democrats, 55% of registered voters have an early interest in Hillary Clinton followed by Barack Obama with 6%, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden and John Edwards were also mentioned each getting approximately 5% support. The survey further reports that a full 35% of Hispanic voters are yet undecided, a margin that allows opportunities for the Republicans to tip the scales, or Democrats to maintain their lead, based on how these parties navigate the social, economic, and particularly, the immigration issues important to Hispanics before the election.

As the nation’s largest and fastest growing minority group, at 46 million strong, Hispanics make up about 15% of the U.S. population. Despite these modest numbers and with their strategic location on the 2008 Electoral College map, Hispanics loom as a potential “swing vote” in next year’s presidential race. “As the U.S. Hispanic population continues to grow, so do citizenship rates and voter registration. As a result, the struggle to persuade Hispanics to vote continues. The opportunity for either party is the one third of the Hispanic vote that is still undecided. Despite the widely varied origins, experiences and opinions, this group remains a rich source of votes for the candidates and parties that address the issues important to them and communicate in ways that are culturally relevant,” said Everett Hernández, President of Avanze, Inc.

“The 2008 presidential election cycle presents a unique and historic opportunity for the Latino electorate to play a significant role in shaping the outcome. This groundbreaking partnership between two leading specialized Hispanic organizations is designed to fill the void in political insight and understanding about the Latino segment of the population leading up to the 2008 presidential election. This survey in key states provides the candidates, their campaigns and the political party’s important information about the issues and values that the Latinos voters care about. The timeliness of this information, just prior to the Iowa caucus, should be carefully considered if the candidates expect to win over this swing voter,” expressed Monica Lozano, publisher of La Opinión and Senior Vice President of ImpreMedia.

The data presented in the survey show that Democrats currently benefit by being seen largely on the right side of the immigration debate, the economy, healthcare and Iraq by a majority of Hispanic voters regardless of party affiliation. Important potential opportunities for Republicans were revealed, however, mostly with the Independent voters, who make up 15% of the Hispanic electorate. Painting the Democrats in a less than favorable light on issues where Independent Hispanics find Democrats weak (the “amnesty” issue with regards to immigration, the economy and the withdrawal of troops from Iraq) may allow Republicans to siphon more support from the Independents and steal potential votes from the Democratic candidate.

According to those polled, universal healthcare stands out as an example where the Republican Party will have trouble competing. Democrats will have to keep the Hispanic voters focused on the issues that they say matter most to them –Iraq, immigration reform, the economy and healthcare– and less on the other issues that are culturally troublesome to Hispanics –the death penalty, legalized abortion and same-sex marriage– in order to maintain their early lead and generate enough support to get Hispanic voters out to the polls, in their party’s favor.

The poll also found that the format for communicating political messages to Hispanics is another area where both parties hold unrealized potential. The opportunity lies in that Hispanic registered voters are engaged in Spanish language media including print, television, radio and the Internet, and therefore, candidates can capitalize from using the Spanish language media to further communicate to this group “in” language and “in” culture.

Drawing on information gained from Hispanic registered voters in the top five Hispanic states (California, Texas, Florida, New York and Illinois), the survey reveals that Hispanics are a wide and varied political constituency with divergent opinions on issue prioritization and policy prescriptions. Terms such as conservative, moderate and liberal do not often coincide with positions taken by non-Hispanics who apply these same terms, and Hispanics candidate and party preferences for President do not break down neatly according to the their party registration.

For example, one in five registered Republicans favor a Democratic candidate, while almost half (44%) did not yet have a preference. Registered Independents prefer a Democrat currently by a 5-to-1 margin, but more than one third are still undecided. Overall, when candidate and generic party preferences are totaled, Hispanics prefer a Democratic president by a margin of more than 3-to-1 (72% vs. 20%). This 52% margin far surpasses the 38% Hispanic voter registration advantage Democrats have over Republicans.