Campaign Media spending to Grow 64.1% in 2008.

Political campaign spending on advertising media and marketing services is expected to rocket to an all-time high of $4.50 billion in the 2008 election cycle, as an acrimonious political environment, record fundraising and the high number of presidential candidates are driving an unprecedented media spending splurge, according to a preliminary forecast analysis released today by PQ Media.

Total political media spend in the 2008 election cycle, including all nine advertising and marketing communications segments used for this purpose, is expected to jump 43.3% compared with the 2006 cycle and is projected to soar 64.1% over the 2004 election, the last presidential campaign year, according to PQ Media’s Political Media Buying 2008: Preliminary Forecast Analysis. PQ Media will publish an updated version of Political Media Buying 2008 in the fourth quarter of next year, including actual spend data and trends for the 2008 elections.

“A key trend driving growth is that this is the first election since 1928 without a current member of the executive branch running for office, which has resulted in an unusually high number of presidential candidates participating in the primary season, as well as a discordant political landscape on several fronts,” said Patrick Quinn, President & CEO of PQ Media.

Another key trend driving overall growth in 2008 is expected record-breaking fundraising. The decision by many presidential candidates to forgo federal matching funds has contributed significantly to increased fundraising because individual contributions have no set limits. Unprecedented spending has already occurred in 2007 as a result of significant changes to the presidential primary calendar that has key primaries being held in January and February. Additionally, the acrimonious campaign environment from the past several election cycles, including the successful Democratic bid to regain control of Congress in 2006, has increased fundraising efforts for Senate and House candidates.

Advertising media, including broadcast and cable TV, radio, newspapers, Internet, out-of-home media and mobile & magazines, is projected to reach $3.03 billion, and account for 67.2% of all political media spending in the 2008 election cycle. Meanwhile, spending on political marketing services, including direct mail, public relations, and promotions & event marketing, will reach $1.48 billion and account for the remaining 32.8%. Marketing will continue to gain share from advertising due to more sophisticated databases that allow direct mail strategies to be targeted to specific regions in battleground states, of which there will be more than usual in 2008. PQ Media believes several advertising and marketing segments, such as cable TV and direct mail, will exhibit significant gains due to critical television station inventory trends, particularly in New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Florida.

Nevertheless, broadcast TV will command the largest share of political media spend in 2008 with 51.3% of the total $4.50 billion, but candidates will continue to shift budgets to other media strategies like public relations, promotions & event marketing and the Internet to reach key target demographics. Campaign funding growth has expanded the use of other media, particularly direct mail, which is projected to generate more than $1 billion in spending for the first time in 2008. Of all nine advertising and marketing segments, Internet ad spend is expected to exhibit the fastest growth during the 2008 campaign, up an estimated 83.9% compared with 2006, according to PQ Media’s Political Media Buying 2008. Other media projected to exhibit high double-digit gains are public relations, promotions & event marketing (55.9%), direct mail (53.0%) and broadcast TV (46.2%).

The presidential race is expected to command the largest share of spending in 2008 at 37.1%, or $1.67 billion, while the Senate and House races will account for 19.4% and 21.4%, respectively. Due to significantly fewer gubernatorial races – 11 vs. 36 in 2006 – spending by gubernatorial candidates is expected to account for less 4% of overall spend, while local races and spending on referendums will account for the remaining 18%.

PQ Media believes that political media buying has become more sophisticated each election as both parties have narrowed the focus of spending to key states and designated market areas (DMAs) to more efficiently allocate funds. However, the number of presidential battleground states is expected to be higher in 2008 than during the 2004 election due to the lack of an incumbent candidate and vulnerable Democratic states.

“While most political pundits currently have the Democrats winning the presidential and most other elections, some of them don’t realize that the Democrats are more vulnerable to voter shifts due to so few states in which their party currently has a safe lead,” PQ Media’s Quinn said. “This has resulted in campaign spend being spread across more states in 2008 than during the 2004 election.”
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