Latinos will determine Outcome of Crucial Races in Election 2006.
October 6, 2006
With the partisan balance of power at stake in both the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, Latinos are poised to determine the outcome of key races on November 7, according to an analysis conducted by the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Educational Fund. The NALEO Educational Fund also projects that 5.6 million Latinos will make their voices heard in the election, the highest Latino turnout for any Congressional election not held in conjunction with a Presidential contest.
In races for the U.S. Senate, Latino voters will play a crucial role in several contests that both parties view as valuable political prizes:
* In New Jersey, where Latinos are projected to comprise at least 7% of the voters, incumbent U.S. Senator Bob Menendez (D) is seeking to win election to his first full-term in the Senate, and is locked in a tight race with New Jersey State Senator Thomas H. Kean, Jr. (R), son of former Governor Thomas H. Kean, Sr. (R).
* In Arizona, where Latinos are projected to comprise at least 13% of the voters, Democratic real estate developer Jim Pederson has been gaining
in the polls in his contest to unseat incumbent U.S. Senator Jon Kyl (R). The candidates’ different perspectives on immigration policy have become a key issue during the campaign.
Latino voters will also have a significant impact on several U.S. House races that political observers are considering “toss-up” contests for
Election 2006:
* In New Mexico’s 1st Congressional District, New Mexico Attorney General Patricia Madrid (D) is attempting to unseat U.S. Representative Heather Wilson (R). While Wilson is a four-term incumbent, her district has a significant Democratic voter base. In the 2004 Presidential election, U.S. Sen. John Kerry (D) received 51% of the district’s vote.
* In Connecticut’s 4th Congressional District, where Latinos are nearly 11% of the potential electorate, former Westport Selectwoman Diane Farrell (D) is challenging incumbent U.S. Representative Christopher Shays (R). Both candidates are courting Latino voters, with Shays sending out Spanish-language mailers, and Farrell making campaign appearances with Puerto Rico Governor Anibal Acevedo-Vila (D) and U.S. Representative Xavier Becerra (D).
* In Florida’s 22nd Congressional District, where Latinos are about 9% of the potential electorate, Florida State Senator Ron Klein (D) is challenging incumbent U.S. Representative Clay Shaw. The 22nd Congressional District also has a large number of Democratic voters, with John Kerry having received 52% of the vote during the 2004 election.
* In Illinois’ 6th Congressional District, where Latinos comprise nearly 9% of the potential electorate, the retirement of 16-term incumbent U.S. Representative Henry Hyde (R) has created an extremely competitive open seat contest, with Illinois State Senator Peter Roskam (R) battling Iraqi war veteran Tammy Duckworth (D). The candidates’ stances on immigration reform have emerged as a campaign issue during this race.
* The battle for Colorado’s 7th District also involves a combative debate about immigration — this contest is now an open seat race because of incumbent U.S. Representative Bob Beauprez’ (R) decision to run for Colorado Governor. The contenders for the seat are attorneys and former Colorado State Senator Ed Perlmutter (D), and Rick O’Donnell (R), who has held several state executive positions, including the head of the Colorado Department of Higher Education and the Colorado Department of Regulatory Agencies.
According to NALEO Educational Fund Executive Director Arturo Vargas, “As Latino voters make their decisions on Election Day, they will be looking at candidates’ positions on the same issues that all Americans care about — education, health, and the economic opportunities available for their families and communities. But Latinos also want to ensure that their voices are heard during America’s intense national discussion about the future of our immigration policy. Latinos are deeply concerned about the tone and tenor of campaign debates about immigration, and they will not stand for candidates who use the issue in a divisive or inflammatory manner.”
In gubernatorial races, Nevada’s Latinos could decide the outcome of the open seat contest between U.S. Representative James Gibbons (R) and State Senator Dina Titus (D). Nevada is home to one of the nation’s fastest growing Latino populations — the Latino population grew from 124,419 in 1990 to 563,999 in 2005, and the Latino share of the population increased from 10% to 24% during the same period. Latinos are 12.5% of the state’s potential electorate.
Mr. Vargas concluded, “As November 7 draws near, political observers view an increasing number of formerly ‘safe’ contests as competitive races.
In these elections, where ‘all bets are off,’ Latino voters could make the critical difference. Ultimately, no candidate for top political office can win without a viable strategy to reach the Latino community. These strategies must involve a commitment to address the issues that are important to Latinos and all of our nation’s voters. Latinos are listening carefully to candidates and campaigns; what they hear now will help determine the outcome on Election Day.”
The NALEO Educational Fund is the leading organization that empowers Latinos to participate fully in the American political process, from citizenship to public service. The NALEO Educational Fund is a national non- profit, non-partisan organization whose constituency includes the more than 6,000 Latino elected and appointed officials nationwide.