Back-to-School Spending.

Some surveys say back-to-school spending will be up, another says down — either way, the CE and PC sectors may not be happy.

First, the good news.

With summer half over and the start of the new school year quickly approaching, parents are beginning to plan for back-to-school shopping. According to the second annual Back to School Spending Index survey sponsored by MasterCard International and conducted by Ipsos-Insight, on average parents of US students college age and younger expect to spend $573 this year on back-to-school items. In addition, 22% of those polled anticipate 2005 back-to-school expenses to exceed $750.

Some 37% of parents plan to spend more in 2005 than they did the previous year on clothing, books and supplies.

Those figures are backed up by another survey released last week, “Shopping in America: Back-to-School 2005,” from the Macerich Company. The survey of more than 4,000 parents and students shopping for grades from kindergarten to college across the nation finds that back-to-school spending will be up 25% compared to last year, and the majority of the shopping will take place at mall department and specialty stores.

Somewhat surprisingly, the survey found that back-to-school shoppers would be buying less online this year. Only 7.3% of the respondents said they would be buying online in 2005 vs. 8.6% in 2004.

Now the bad news.

According to the findings of the new National Retail Federation’s “2005 Back-to-School Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey,” conducted by BIGresearch, families with school-aged children will spend an average of only $443.77 on back-to-school items. That figure is down 8.2% from the $483.28 expectation found in last year’s survey.

Overall, the NRF estimates that back-to-school spending will reach $13.39 billion this year, down from $14.79 billion last year.

While many back-to-school items are expected to perform at the same level as last year, the NRF anticipates that most of the spending drop will come from the electronics category, where spending is expected to fall more than $1 billion to $2.06 billion, compared to $3.09 billion last year.

Although 44% of consumers plan to purchase electronics for back-to-school, which is similar to the 41.7% who purchased last year, the average spend is expected to fall to $68.08, compared with $101.03 last year.

“Though many consumers will be buying electronics this year, they may be taking a break from spending on high-end computers and other expensive gadgets,” said Tracy Mullin, NRF CEO. “It is understandable that, after several years of strong gains and record-breaking sales, demand may cool slightly for electronics merchandise this year.”

The NRF calculations do not include — as the Mastercard survey did — the spending of college students and their parents. Those numbers will be covered in NRF’s annual “Back to College” survey, scheduled for release next month. Electronics retailers will be hoping to hear the news that college students plan to continue spending on computers, mp3 players and cell phones.

For more information at http://www.emarketer.com