Bush 2004 Gains Among Hispanics Strongest With Men,& In South & Northeast.

In the fall of 2000, only 34 percent of Hispanic men supported him over Al Gore, but in 2004, 46 percent did. Among Hispanic women, his support rose only from 35 to 36 percent, a statistically insignificant change.

There has been recent disagreement over how well Bush did among Hispanics. The television network-Associated Press national exit poll taken on Election Day gave him 44 percent of their votes, compared to 35 percent in 2000. Then a study by Ana Maria Arumi of NBC News, aggregating the 51 individual 2004 exit polls conducted in every state for the same sponsors concluded that the Bush share was 40 percent. But Antonio Gonzalez, president of the William C. Velasquez Institute, a research group that deals with political issues, contended an exit poll he conducted showed Bush got only 33 percent.

The Annenberg data, which gave Bush 41 percent, cannot resolve the dispute. But it suggests strongly that Bush made significant gains whose precise magnitude is uncertain. The margin of error for the 2004 Annenberg data was plus or minus three percentage points.

The Annenberg choice data involved examining the Bush versus Gore preference in the eight weeks before the 2000 election and two weeks following (when respondents were asked whom they actually voted for.) Those numbers were compared with the Bush versus Kerry preferences in the comparable period in 2004. There were 703 Hispanic citizens who were registered voters in the 2000 data and 906 in 2004.

Through both ten week periods, the degree of Hispanic support for each of the major party candidates remained quite level. But there is no way of knowing which pre-election respondents voted as they expected, or voted at all. Nor are post-election recollections as reliable as what people tell exit pollsters on Election Day; there is usually a tendency for more respondents to say they voted for the winner than actually did so.

Bush won majorities of support in 2004 only from Hispanics who were Protestant, politically conservative or southerners. His gain among Protestant Hispanics was seven percentage points, up to 57 percent from 50 percent in 2000. Among Catholic Hispanics, his share rose from to 33 from 28 percent.

The 55 percent majority Bush attained among Hispanics in the South was up from 41 percent in 2000. He gained about as much in the Northeast, where he went from 20 to 35 percent. His support stayed about the same in the West, where he went from 33 to 30 percent, and in the Midwest, where his support went from 43 to 46 percent.

The 2004 analysis showed that Bush did worse among Hispanics who asked to be interviewed in Spanish, rather than English, and among those who were not born in the United States. He got 42 percent support among Hispanics interviewed in English and 36 percent from those interviewed in Spanish. He got 42 percent support among Hispanic citizens born in the United States and 37 percent among those born elsewhere.

Age and education showed no clear patterns of Bush support, but only 33 percent of Hispanics with household incomes below $35,000 per year supported him.

The Annenberg polling also measured the views of 3,592 Hispanic citizens who were registered voters over the entire course of the 2004 survey. The 2004 National Annenberg Election Survey began on October 7, 2003 and concluded on November 16, 2004 and involved interviews with 81,422 adults.

It found Hispanics more supportive than other Americans of private school vouchers, free trade agreements like NAFTA and restrictions on gun purchases. Sixty percent of Hispanics favored vouchers, compared to 47 percent of other Americans. Fifty-two percent favored more free trade agreements, compared to 39 percent of non-Hispanics, and 70 percent said they favored more restrictions on gun purchases, compared to 55 percent of other Americans.

But the Hispanic respondents were more critical of the war in Iraq than were other Americans. Over the course of the survey, just 39 percent said the war had been worth it, while 48 percent of other Americans did. Among other Americans, 57 percent said the United States should keep its troops there until a stable government was established, while 38 percent said troops should come home as soon as possible. Among Hispanics, only 44 percent wanted to keep troops in Iraq while 51 percent wanted them home as soon as possible.

On the economy, while 50 percent of other Americans said their personal economic situation was excellent or good, only 37 percent of Hispanics did.

The size of the survey also permitted comparisons of views among Hispanics of different heritages. For example, 68 percent of those with ties to Puerto Rico favored vouchers, compared to 58 percent of those from Mexico and 66 percent of those from Cuba.

But the Cubans were closer to the Mexicans than to the Puerto Ricans on the issue of a constitutional amendment barring same-sex marriage. Those of Cuban heritage were evenly split on the subject, with 44 percent in favor and 44 percent opposed. The Mexican heritage respondents had 43 percent in favor and 47 percent opposed, and the Puerto Ricans were opposed, 52 to 38 percent.

Fifty percent of Hispanics of Cuban heritage said the war in Iraq had been worth it, compared to 38 percent of those from Mexico or Puerto Rico.

Asked if they favored more restrictions on immigration, 46 percent of all Hispanics did, compared to 63 percent of other Americans. Fifty-six percent of those of Cuban heritage, 54 percent of those from Puerto Rico, but only 43 percent of those of Mexican heritage and 44 percent of those from Central America took that view.

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For more information at http://www.AnnenbergPublicPolicyCenter.org