Latino Attitudes On The War In Iraq, The Economy & The 2004 Election.

Latino support for the war in Iraq and for President George W. Bush has surged since the capture of Saddam Hussein, but Latinos remain concerned about the condition of the U.S. economy and the long-term consequences of the war.

In order to probe Latino views of the war, the economy, and the upcoming presidential race, the Pew Hispanic Center (PHC) recently conducted two national surveys of Latino adults. One took place in December 2003, just before Hussein’s capture, and the other in early January 2004. Comparing the two reveals dramatic swings towards more positive views on several questions regarding the decision to go to war and its conduct. Bush is the clear beneficiary with increased approval ratings and stronger support for his reelection bid.

The shift in Latino views following Hussein’s capture generally mirrors the trend in public opinion surveys of the general public, although Hispanics are somewhat less supportive of the war and of Bush both as president and as a reelection candidate than the population as a whole.

The two PHC surveys show that most Latinos believe the economy should be a greater concern for Bush than the war on terrorism, and that a majority is concerned about personal finances. Latinos are evenly divided over whether they expect economic conditions nationally to improve.

Despite the impact of Hussein’s capture on public opinion, Latinos are split on whether the Bush Administration deliberately misled the American public about the threat Iraq posed to the United States before the war began, on whether the war is worth the toll it has taken in American lives, and on whether the president has a clear plan to bring the situation in Iraq to a successful conclusion. On each of these issues, roughly half of the Latino population takes skeptical views.

The December and January PHC surveys each involved nationally representative samples of 500 Hispanic adults who could chose to be interviewed in English or Spanish. Both polls have a margin of error of four percentage points. Interviews were conducted December 8 to 11 and January 2 to 4. Fieldwork for both surveys was conducted by Bendixen & Associates, a public
opinion research firm specializing in the Hispanic population.

The War in Iraq

As with the general public, Latino views towards Bush and the war have been on a bit of a roller coaster ride in response to events in 2003. PHC surveys taken last February, during the United Nations debate in advance of the war, and in April, as U.S. troops were closing in on Baghdad, showed that support jumped after combat was underway. By December, after a period of mounting U.S. casualties and frustration over the fruitless search for Hussein and weapons of mass destruction, Latino views were much more negative. Following Hussein’s capture, support for both the war and the president bounced back, but not to the high levels measured in April during the initial combat phase of the conflict.

Aside from this overall trend, there has been one notable shift within the Hispanic population: the difference in opinion between U.S.-born and foreign-born Latinos has narrowed. In February and to a greater extent in April 2003, U.S.-born Latinos were more supportive of the war than the foreign born. In February, for example, the foreign born were much more likely than the U.S. born (60% vs. 48%) to say that United Nations weapons inspectors should be given more time to work before the United States resorted to military action. In April, although backing for the war had increased across the board, a far higher share of U.S.-born Latinos than the foreign born (75% vs. 52%) said they supported the war.

In the December 2003 and January 2004 PHC surveys, responses by the foreign and native born were fairly similar on several different questions about Iraq. Interestingly, the gap persists on two points. First, the native born are still more supportive of the initial decision to go to war. And second, the native born are more doubtful that the Bush Administration has a clear plan to bring the war to a successful conclusion. On this point, another notable distinction emerges from the survey results: Latinos who get their broadcast news in English are far more likely than those who use Spanish-language media (57% vs. 39%) to answer “no” when asked whether Bush has a clear plan to end the war. No other characteristic yields such a large difference on this question.

Throughout the PHC surveys on Iraq, males have tended to be more supportive of the war than females, and this pattern continues to hold true. In the January 2004 survey, for example, 56 percent of Hispanic males said they approved of Bush’s handling of the war compared to 39% of females. Similarly, in January, 63 percent of males said they believed the United States should leave troops in Iraq until a stable government is established there compared to 37 percent of females.

Evaluating results of the PHC surveys conducted before and after Hussein’s capture reveals large and substantial swings in Latino public opinion towards more positive views, especially in regard to the war and the Bush presidency. On a broad question about the way things are going in the country, the share of Latinos who said they were satisfied jumped from 40 to 49 percent. The number who said they approved of Bush’s handling of the situation in Iraq went from 32 percent to 47 percent. Asked about the decision to use military force against Iraq, the number of Latinos saying it was the right decision went from 45 to 54 percent. The number saying that the military effort in Iraq is going “very well” nearly doubled from 16 to 30 percent. A similar swing in the views of the general public following Hussein’s capture is evident in surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, which also receives support from the Pew Charitable Trusts but is not affiliated with the PHC. In October 2003, 60 percent of the public said using military force against Iraq was the right decision, while in a survey taken in December, shortly after Hussein’s capture, that number jumped to 67 percent. A subsequent survey fielded from December 19 to January 4 showed the number dropping back to 62 percent. Similarly, 16 percent of the general public said the war was going “very well” in October compared to 28 percent immediately after Hussein’s capture and 23 percent in the December-January survey.

The Bush Administration

Surveys by the Pew Research Center show that Bush’s overall approval rating with the total population increased from 50 percent to 57 percent after Hussein’s capture. The PHC surveys of Latinos show a similar gain with the share saying that Bush was doing an “excellent” or “good” job increasing from 46 percent to 54 percent. When asked whether they would prefer
to see Bush reelected or a Democratic candidate—none was named—the number of Latinos saying they preferred Bush increased from 27 percent to 37 percent. Looking only at Latinos who are U.S. citizens and hence eligible to vote, Bush’s gain is virtually identical, going from 27 percent to 36 percent.

Nonetheless, Latinos expressed a variety of concerns about Bush, both in regard to Iraq and the economy. Nearly half of Latinos (48%) say they think the Bush administration deliberately misled the American public about the threat posed by Iraq before the war began. Almost as many (46%) say they do not think Bush has a clear plan for bringing the war to an end. Similarly, about half say that the threat of terrorism against the United States has remained the same despite Hussein’s capture (53%) and that the danger to U.S. troops in Iraq has remained the same (48%).

An even larger share (70%) says that it is more important for Bush to focus on the economy than the war on terrorism. Most Latinos (69% in January) say that their personal financial situation is in “fair” or “poor” shape, and nearly half (47%) say they expect economic conditions for the country as a whole to be the same or worse a year from now than such conditions are at present.

Nearly a year ago, when the Bush Administration was seeking international support for a possible armed intervention, Latinos clearly favored action through the United Nations or in concert with allies. That opinion still holds. In the December and January surveys, about half of Latinos (49% and 54%) said they considered it “very important” to involve the United Nations as well as countries like Spain, France, Russia and Germany in the rebuilding of Iraq. However, when asked in the December survey specifically about the role Spain had played as an American ally, 69 percent of Latinos said they did not know enough to have an opinion. That survey was taken less than two weeks after seven Spanish intelligence officers were killed in an ambush in Iraq.

Results from the December 2003 and January 2004 Pew Hispanic Center surveys of Latino adults on the war in Iraq, the U.S. economy and the 2004 election follow.

To view charts CLICK above on ‘More Images’.