Latino Voter Enthusiasm Peaks as Independent Support Shifts and Gender Divide Widens in 2024 Presidential Race

Entravision, AltaMed, and BSP Research have released the Week 6 results of the 2024 National Latino Voter Tracking Poll, showing significant shifts in Latino voter engagement, campaign outreach efforts, and critical issues leading up to Election Day. Latino voter enthusiasm has reached its highest level since the poll began, and new insights reveal a growing gender divide in candidate preferences.

Key Findings from Week 6:

1. Latino Voter Enthusiasm is on the Rise

• 3 out of 4 Latino voters (75%) either have already voted or are “almost certain” that they will vote. This is the highest level of voter enthusiasm among Latinos since our poll began on September 11.
• 7% of Latino voters have voted early – up from 3% last week.

2. Campaigns are Waking Up and Increasing Latino Outreach

• 58% of Latinos have been contacted by a party, campaign, or other organization – up from 48% in Week 1 (9/11-9/17).

Among those who have been contacted:

• 58% were contacted by the Democratic party (down from 66% in Week 1)
• 44% were contacted by the Republican party (up from 41% in Week 1)
• 20% have been contacted by a non-partisan or civic organization
• Higher income Latinos ($80k+) were most likely to have been contacted (67%). Half of lower income Latinos (under $40k) have not been contacted.
• Text messaging is the most common means of contact (30%), followed by campaign mail (20%).

3. A Third of Latino Voters Still Need More Information to Make Their Choice for President

• 33% of Latino voters do not have all the information they need to make their choice for President.
• Lack of information is pronounced among younger Latino voters. Half (50%) of Latino voters under 30 want or need more information to make their choice.
• 28% of Democratic Latino voters and 27% of Republican Latino voters want or need more information.
• More than half (55%) of Independent Latino voters want or need more information to make their choice.

4. Independent Latino Voters are Up for Grabs

After surging in recent weeks, Independent Latinos’ support for Donald Trump levels off in Week 6.
Kamala Harris rebounds with Independent Latinos in Week 6, picking up support from previously undecided Independent Latino voters.

• Week to week trend among Independent Latino voters:
• Week 5: 46% Trump, 37% Harris, 18% Undecided (Trump +9)
• Week 6: 44% Trump, 43% Harris, 13% Undecided (Trump +1)

5. Latinos Prefer Healthcare Providers Who are Part of Their Community

• 1 out of 5 (19%) of Latino registered voters say that access to Latino doctors, or to doctors who speak Spanish, is an important healthcare issue.
• Younger Latino voters (under 30) are more likely to prefer Latino or Spanish speaking healthcare providers (24%).

THE GENDER GAP AMONG U.S. LATINO VOTERS:

LATINAS ARE SOLIDLY BLUE, LATINOS ARE MORE RECEPTIVE TO THE GOP

Presidential matchup: Harris dominates with Latinas, while Latinos are more amenable to Trump.

Harris-Trump head to head:

• Total: Harris 60%, Trump 36%, Undecided 4% (Harris +24)
• Men: Harris 54%, Trump 43%, Undecided 3% (Harris +11)
• Women: Harris 66%, Trump 30%, Undecided 4% (Harris +36)

Harris Favorability:

• Total: 63% favorable, 32% unfavorable (Harris +31)
• Men: 58% favorable, 38% unfavorable (Harris +20)
• Women: 67% favorable, 27% unfavorable (Harris +40)

Trump Favorability:

• Total: 39% favorable, 55% unfavorable (Trump -16)
• Men: 46% favorable, 49% unfavorable (Trump -3)
• Women: 33% favorable, 61% unfavorable (Trump -28)

Senate preference: Latinas push the Democrats over the goal line as the two parties are essentially tied with Latinos.

Senate preference:

• Total: Democrat 54%, Republican 34% (Dem +20)
• Men: Democrat 45%, Republican 44% (Dem +1)
• Women: Democrat 61%, Republican 26% (Dem +35)

Congressional preference: Democrats dominate again with Latinas, with a narrower gap among Latinos.

Congressional preference:

• Total: Democrat 55%, Republican 31% (Dem +24)
• Men: Democrat 48%, Republican 39% (Dem +9)
• Women: Democrat 61%, Republican 25% (Dem +35)

The 2024 National Latino Tracking Poll will run for eight weeks, with weekly updates released every Monday. Each week, 500 Latino voters from across the country are surveyed on their voting intentions, key issues, healthcare concerns, and candidate favorability. The poll offers valuable insight into the evolving priorities of Latino voters as Election Day approaches.

To download data set, CLICK HERE.