AI vs. mani-pedis

By Gonzalo López Martí – Creative Director

www.LMMMiami.com/

I was hanging out with a group of colleagues.

Naturally, we ended up playing the #1 parlor game of 2025: what jobs will survive the march of AI?

“Manicurist”, pondered half-jokingly a friend with a decade-long career in the market research realm.

She’s onto something.

A mani-pedi is possibly a service you wouldn’t want to procure from a machine, even if it became technologically possible.

If you crisscross the continental US of A you will notice that there are nail salons EVERYWHERE.

From big city streets to exurban strip smalls.

Only Starbucks seems to have more nationwide store frontage.

How come?

To a marketer interested in the ways cultural trends emerge to become mainstream and monetized, the phenomenon is worth exploring.

Nail salons, possibly a $25+ billion industry nationwide if we include labor, tools, supplies, ancillaries et al, are mostly owned & operated by Vietnamese women*.

The market seems to keep expanding.

See, it ain’t about just grooming: nail art is the thing.

The more elaborate the better.

African American and Hispanic gals started the trend.

White gals, as usual, duly followed suit.

Because?

Well.

In the 70s, the advent of digital & quartz technology was supposed to sign the mechanical wristwatch industry’s death sentence.

What did the threatened manufacturers do?

Marketing.

They raised prices and reinvented themselves as hi end purveyors of luxury self-expression.

Today, watchmaking is a thriving, money-printing business.

Sorry.

I digress.

Back to nails.

SELF-EXPRESSION ANYONE?

If we look at the phenomenon from an evolutionary POV, all visible keratin growths in a mammal’s exposed anatomy are markers of fitness and reproductive health.

Keratin: nails, hair, eyebrows, eyelashes, beard, etc**

Nail art, not unlike tattoos and piercing, is a primal form of self-expression.

Apologies for stating the obvious.

The odd thing about nail embellishment is that, if you ask me, men are utterly uninterested in the whole thing.

As long as there’s no visible grime or fungus, we’re game.

In fact, I’d dare say that men are possibly turned off by overly intricate nail adornment.

Nail art is, for a lack of a better definition, a “female fetish”.

Were we to observe up close the various forms of female to female status & beauty signaling, it is all quite cumbersome and uncomfortable.

Zero ergonomics: high heels, tight &/or unmanageable clothing, expensive accessories.

It is just meant to impress other members of the same sex.

The message seems to be: “I don’t work” or “I don’t really need to work for a living”.

Don’t shoot me, I just the messenger.

My professional guess about nail art in particular: it is an affordable luxury for working class women.

Me time.

The spa of the downtrodden.

A regular manicure can be procured for $20

Acrylic full set: $50 give or take

That’s a far cry from a therapy session barely covered by your health insurance.

The way nails salons promote themselves is revealing:

“Prepare to be treated like a star as our dedicated team of highly trained professionals caters to your every need. Experience the epitome of luxury in our beautiful, serene spa atmosphere, where we prioritize strict sanitary procedures and offer only the highest quality products. Indulge in a truly relaxing session with free parking, and Wi-Fi connectivity. We offer a comprehensive range of services, including manicures, pedicures, UV gel, dipping powder, acrylic nails, waxing, body massage services, facials, eyelash extensions, and so much more.”

So what’s the future of the nail salon industry?

I think it will keep growing.

Exponentially.

Self-expression + me time + AI-proof jobs = gold

For now, the industry remains mostly a fragmented mom & pop affair, but, as is the case with most lifestyle & fashion trends that find their way to the mainstream, big corporations will take notice and enter the space.

The next big boom will come when men become patrons of nails salons too.

Nail art and all.

We’ve seen this in the past.

Everything becomes unisex eventually.

I am old enough to remember when going to the gym was considered effeminate.

Conversely, tattoos were a male trend for several years. Today women have embrace it with gusto.

*Tippi Hedren and Vietnamese manicurists: https://www.npr.org/2019/05/19/724452398/how-vietnamese-americans-took-over-the-nails-business-a-documentary

** Keratin, a protein, is the key structural material making up scales, hair, nails, feathers, horns, claws, hooves, and the outer layer of skin in vertebrates. Keratin also protects epithelial cells from damage or stress. Nail biting seems to be an instinctual stress-related behavior. An old grandma trick to keep kids from biting their nails was to paint the with bitter-tasting nail polish. Nail art might be good treatment too. How do we explain bikini waxing and permanent laser hair removal? Will do some research and get back to you soon.