The 2010 Census and the Hispanic Advertising and Media Industry.

As anyone in Hispanic advertising will tell you, next year’s 2010 Census will have huge implications for Hispanic advertising and media. For those of you around after the 2000 Census, you no doubt remember how facts like “Hispanics have surpassed African Americans” or “Hispanic population grows 58% in 10 years” put our industry on the map.

In many ways, the 2000 Census ushered in an unprecedented golden age of Hispanic advertising and media that we’re still enjoying in 2009 (in light of the difficult economy).

As we prepare for the Census count next year, I keep thinking that the results, which should begin to trickle out in early 2011 (less than 18 months from now), will be a Catch-22 for our industry.

One of two things will happen – either the 2010 Hispanic population numbers will exceed or fall short of expectations. In some ways, both spell trouble for Hispanic advertising.

Obviously, if the Hispanic population numbers fall short of expectations, there will be inevitable talk that the Hispanic market has peaked and that recessionary economic pressures and impending immigration policy changes will mark the end of the “golden years” of Hispanic population growth. This is the kind of worst case scenario that is very similar to the disastrous effect of higher than “expected” inflation (sorry, I digress to my macroeconomics background). This will inevitably lead to marketers reassessing their Hispanic advertising budgets and potentially flat lining them or worse.

If the Hispanic population numbers exceed expectations, the common theory goes that it will serve as further fuel for the fast burning fire that has been growth in Hispanic advertising and media. While no doubt a boost for the Hispanic media business (broadcast, radio, Internet, mobile, print), I question if it is not a mixed blessing for Hispanic advertising agencies.

If the Hispanic population numbers do exceed expectations, what do you think general market agencies will do? I can’t imagine they will sit idly and watch their budgets get reallocated to their Hispanic counterparts. That is not what they’ve done the last 5-10 years. I have to believe big Hispanic population Census results will only reinforce the importance of their efforts to take on Hispanic agencies. It would be a matter of survival.

What do you think?

by Jose Villa
Courtesy of http://www.sensisagency.com/>