Incrementality vendors love to tell you: “Run another test. Validate another model.”
September 27, 2025
Incrementality vendors love to tell you: “Run another test. Validate another model.” But at what point have you run enough tests to actually make a decision? And the moment you finish that validation cycle, the environment has already shifted. Economic conditions change. Consumer behavior changes. Competitors change. So is your Chicago holdout test really the right answer for your national strategy? Is that
The problem is that too many are stuck in a test-first mindset. They’re so focused on carving out perfect experiments and crafting the right narrative that they forget the business is moving forward whether or not the test results are in. It’s like stepping over $100 bills to pick up pennies.
And here’s the kicker: many of these tests are then validated against open-source MMM models…built by the very publishers they’re testing. When we say it out loud, it sounds nuts, right?
It’s time to shift. Enough of the endless loop of measuring for the sake of measuring. The future is decision science:
- Plan with confidence, aligned to business outcomes
- Forecast with transparency, not attribution guesswork
- Reconcile weekly against actuals
- Optimize continuously across channels, categories, and constraints
The world doesn’t wait for your next experiment. Neither should your marketing.
