Americans Highly Uncertain about the Country’s Economic Strength and Place on the World Stage in 10 Years

When asked to imagine what the U.S. will look like in 2024, 65 percent of American respondents are not convinced the country will be on the right track in 10 years. Two-thirds of respondents do not believe that America will be considered the “land of opportunity” in 10 years, and seven in 10 Americans are not certain that working hard and playing by the rules will bring success in 2024. However, a new social consensus is emerging, with overwhelming majorities believing that same-sex marriage (73 percent) and marijuana use (66 percent) will be legal in most states. These findings are according to a special survey commissioned by The Atlantic and the Aspen Institute  and conducted by research firm Penn Schoen Berland (PSB) in partnership with global public relations and strategic communications firm Burson-Marsteller.

This marks the sixth consecutive year that PSB and Burson-Marsteller have conducted an exclusive poll for the Aspen Ideas Festival. Full results and analysis of the poll—“America Looks to 2024: The Atlantic/Aspen Institute Survey”—are available at TheAtlantic.com and at AspenIdeas.org.

The results of this year’s survey will be delivered in a special presentation during the Aspen Ideas Festival by Burson-Marsteller Worldwide Chair and Chief Executive Officer and PSB Chair Donald A. Baer, along with The Atlantic’s Editor-in-Chief James Bennet, Aspen Institute Executive Vice President Elliot Gerson and Mark Penn, Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer at Microsoft and former CEO of Burson-Marsteller and PSB.

“This year’s study revealed a dramatic reversal in Americans’ traditional view of the nation,” said Baer. “We are seeing marked uncertainty about the country’s strength in 10 years, yet growing agreement on the shape of society and issues typically considered social wedges. It is our hope that surveys such as this can provide insight into the challenges and opportunities we face as nation so we can work toward a stronger future.”

Two groups who remain hopeful about America’s prospects are African-Americans and Hispanics; they tend to believe America is on the right track and will remain a land of opportunity. Women, however, appear more pessimistic than men. They are less likely to believe they will be better off financially or heading toward a secure retirement in 10 years. They are also less likely to believe their children will be better off in 10 years or that they will be able to afford their children’s college tuition.

The Dispensable Nation?

Americans are not confident the country will enjoy a leadership position on the world stage in 2024. Only three in 10 envision America’s global standing being on the rise in 10 years, and most, 68 percent, think China, not the U.S. will be a superpower in 10 years. A majority – 53 percent – believe China will be the world’s largest economic force in 10 years.

The future of America’s ability to govern itself is in deep doubt, as two-thirds of Americans are not convinced the U.S. will be more unified in 10 years. A majority, 54 percent, think government will be bigger in 10 years, but most do not say it will be more effective (35 percent say less effective, 33 percent do not know). Americans also anticipate a less peaceful world. By 2024, 19 percent of Americans expect the U.S. to engage in armed conflict with China, 31 percent foresee it with Russia, and nearly half – 45 percent – predict armed conflict with Iran.

The United States of Technology

Meanwhile, confidence in technology remains strong. A majority (63 percent) believe technology has made their lives better and will continue to do so in 10 years, and technology entrepreneurs are most likely (44 percent) to be considered the future leaders of American society. Most foresee technology surrounding them in 10 years, either in the form of robots (59 percent), drones (70 percent) or medicine capable of monitoring and reporting changes in the body (60 percent).

“Not surprisingly, Americans see value in how technology is improving their lives today,” said Penn. “There’s not just acceptance of technology in these numbers; there is also agreement that technology will make people’s lives better in the next decade.”

The study’s findings also revealed expectations for how Americans will live in 2024:

•     Fifty-six percent expect marriage to be less common in 10 years, and 63 percent expect divorce to be more common.
•     Twenty percent expect to buy an electric car in 10 years, and 69 percent expect gas prices to rise by more than $2 per gallon.
•     Nearly half (47 percent) think airline delays will be longer in 10 years than they are today.
•     More say they will read printed books (50 percent) than printed newspapers or magazines (36 percent) 10 years from now.