Americans look into the Crystal Ball: What is likely to happen in the next 10 years?

A new Harris Poll finds that about half of all U.S. adults think it is likely or very likely that there will be a major new war involving many American soldiers (52%) a major terrorist attack like 9/11 in the United States (49%) in the next 10 years. Slightly fewer adults (45%) think that it is likely or very likely that Social Security benefits will be eliminated or sharply reduced, while slightly more than one-third (35%) think it likely or very likely that we will see a woman become president.

Approximately one in six (16%) thinks it is likely or very likely that there will be a stock market crash like the one that happened in 1929.

These are some of the results of a Harris Poll of 2,302 U.S. adults surveyed online by Harris Interactive® between March 17 and 21, 2006.

While substantial numbers of adults think that some of these events are likely, far fewer adults think that any of these are very likely to happen:

-A major new war involving many American soldiers (19%)

-Social Security benefits will be eliminated or sharply reduced (19%)

-A major terrorist attack like 9/11 in the United States (17%)

-A woman becomes president of the United States (13%)

-A stock market crash like 1929 (5%)

-And, only minorities think that these are not at all likely to happen in the next 10 years:

-A stock market crash like 1929 (40%)

-A woman becomes president of the United States (21%)

-Social Security benefits will be eliminated or sharply reduced (19%)

-A major terrorist attack like 9/11 in the United States (9%)

-A major new war involving many American soldiers (9%)