Baby Bust is Over – Fertility Rising Again in U.S.

The Baby Bust in the United States is over, according to a report released from Demographic Intelligence..

In the wake of the Great Recession, the total fertility rate (TFR) and the number of births in the United States fell more than 7 percent from 2007 to 2010. Now, the TFR and the number of births in the United States are rising, according to the January edition of The U.S. Fertility Forecast from Demographic Intelligence (DI). The report projects that the TFR will rise from 1.93 children per woman in 2010 to 1.98 children per woman in 2012, and that the United States will register more than 4 million births this year.

“Many women put off having a child in the wake of the Great Recession,” said Bradford Wilcox, president of Demographic Intelligence and a professor of sociology at the University of Virginia. “Now, we think more women and couples have decided to go ahead and have a child—especially that second or third child that they put off at the height of the recession.”

According to Demographic Intelligence (DI) analyses, approximately 1.08 million babies were postponed or foregone from 2008 to 2011. Parents considering a second, third, or fourth child have been particularly likely to avoid having a child since the recession began in December of 2007. “Childbearing is partly an economic decision and clearly many couples felt like they could not afford an additional child,” said Samuel Sturgeon, director of research at Demographic Intelligence.

Nevertheless, the report indicates that births are now rising for at least three reasons: the number of American women in their prime childbearing years is rising, many families do not want to postpone a birth any longer, and pronatalism remains high in the United States.

In fact, Americans’ ideal family size has risen from 2.39 in the late 1990s to 2.66 in 2010. “Even though couples and women are having fewer children today because of the fallout associated with the recession, most Americans of childbearing age think that having two or more children is ideal,” said Sturgeon.

Indeed, companies in the juvenile products industry should have cause for optimism. Demographic Intelligence, which provides fertility forecasts to companies working in the juvenile products industry and related sectors, is predicting increases in total U.S. births in both 2012 and 2013 as women try to recoup the fertility they postponed from 2008 to 2010. U.S. births fell from 4.32 million in 2007 to 4.01 million in 2010.

“U.S. births bottomed out in 2010 and now seem headed up,” said Sturgeon.

Major findings of the report include:

Demographic Intelligence predicts that 4.06 million children were born in 2011 (federal statistics have not yet been released for 2011 births) and that the number of births will continue to rise in 2012 and 2013;

The share of Hispanic births will drop from a high of 24.6 percent in 2007 to 23.4 percent in 2012. The Hispanic share of births has been dropping since 2007 – a first in U.S. birth trends; and,

Births are now rising fastest among older (30+) and college-educated women.

“Birth trends are consistent with the larger story in American family life,” said Wilcox, who also directs the National Marriage Project at the University of Virginia. “More educated and affluent Americans are less likely to have their family decisions—including childbearing—affected by what is happening to the larger economy. They are more likely to have the economic security to go ahead and have a child, even in today’s economic climate.”

There are many types of businesses that can benefit from this data such as education, healthcare, insurance and real estate, and in fact the new report is drawing support from industry groups. According to Jason Macari, Chairman of the Juvenile Products Manufacturers Association (JPMA), “Reports such as The U.S. Fertility Forecast provide tremendous value to JPMA members allowing them to successfully meet the demands of parents nationwide.”

For more information at http://www.demographicintel.com