‘ELECTION OUTLOOK’ REPORT: 2026 MIDTERMS PROJECTED TO BE THE MOST EXPENSIVE IN HISTORY
October 7, 2025
Assembly North America released its 2026 Election Outlook Report, predicting the most expensive midterms in U.S. history.
Built using Assembly’s proprietary Assembly Market Intensity Index (AMII), the report forecasts a record $10.1 billion in political advertising spend during the 2025–2026 cycle — a 15% increase from the last midterms in 2022.
The findings make clear that political ad spend will not only collide with commercial advertising but fundamentally reshape the media marketplace in 2026.
Key takeaways from the report:
- Record-Breaking Spend: With political ad spending projected to surpass $10 billion, brands should prepare for inflated costs and tighter inventory, particularly in battleground markets and peak windows.
- Impact Beyond Politics: Political creative has consistently proven its power to shape consumer sentiment, often spilling over into brand perceptions. In 2026, this effect is expected to intensify, creating new challenges for advertisers across categories.
- Urgency for Action: Advertisers must take proactive, concrete steps now to safeguard campaigns. This includes diversifying channel strategies, stress-testing budgets, and/or reassessing media partners to reduce exposure to political disruptions and protect both brand safety and efficiency.
To download report, CLICK HERE.
