Growth Of Los Angeles Population, But Short In Nielsen.

The growth of the Los Angeles Hispanic population kept the entire Los Angeles DMA population from shrinking greater than it did year-to-year, and now that growth is reflected in Nielsen’s NSI universe estimates and meter panel characteristics. Good news for Spanish media is that all of the growth came in the Spanish Dominant portion of the language classifications.

Nielsen’s 2001-2002 TVHH population for the Los Angeles DMA shrunk by 1%, from 5,354,150 homes to 5,303,490 homes. That occurred even though the Hispanic TVHH population grew 2.7% year-to-year, from 1,531,640 to 1,573,400, an additional 41,760 TV households. Hispanic homes now represent 29.7% of the total household population. But given that there are more Hispanics per household than non-Hispanics per household, the Hispanic penetration of P18+ will certainly grow from the current 39%.

Beginning immediately, Nielsen is reflecting this continuing population shift in its NSI meter panel for the LA DMA. Overnight, the Hispanic portion of the LA meter panel went from a UE (universe estimate) of 28.6% of the total panel, to 29.7% of the panel. Given that the panel is generally 540 homes, the old UE equated to 154 Hispanic homes in the panel. The additional 1.1 percentage points equal an additional 6 Hispanic homes in the panel and 6 fewer non-Hispanic homes.
Additionally, all of the growth in the Hispanic population came within the Spanish Dominant portion of the language usage strata. Previously, Spanish dominant Hispanic households comprised 16.4% of the TOTAL meter panel and all other Hispanic households comprised 12.2% of the TOTAL meter panel. With the new broadcast year, the Spanish Dominant portion of the panel increased to 17.5% of the TOTAL meter panel, up 1.1%, the same point gain of the total Hispanic representation. All other Hispanic households still comprise 12.2% of the panel.

What this means is that Spanish Dominant Hispanics continue to be a portion of the meter panel that Nielsen is furthest from the universe estimate. On an installed basis, the meter panel is at 13% Spanish Dominant Hispanics (meaning 13% of all the meter homes are Spanish dominant Hispanics, even though they now represent 17.5%), shy by 4.5% of the UE. If Nielsen’s panel were properly installed in Spanish dominant Hispanic households, at 17.5% of the total, there would be an additional 25 Spanish dominant Hispanic households. Those 25 homes don’t come from the other Hispanic homes, but from the non-Hispanic homes, closing the gap between the two by 50 homes.

For Spanish media, this means a much higher likelihood that the Spanish stations will close the gap in ratings between them and the English stations, and surpass the English stations in more cases. Since LA is a meter-diary integrated system, the demo ratings will be impacted as Nielsen gets closer and closer to the new UE.

Matching the new UE is an uphill battle, however. Since Nielsen instituted Structured Prioritization one year ago, where priority for meter installations is placed on the strata with representation furthest from the UE, Nielsen has made very little progress getting the Spanish dominant portion of the panel to budge. Now, the company is even further away from their goal.