Hispanics Will Account for +40% of the Increase in U.S. Employment [INSIGHT]

The Hispanic population will play an increasingly significant role in future U.S. employment growth, accounting for more than 40 percent of growth in the next five years and more than 75 percent between 2020 and 2034 – an increase of 11 million jobs out of an economy-wide gain of 14 million –according to a new study from IHS Inc..

The IHS study, Hispanic Immigration and U.S. Economic Growth, projects that Hispanic employment growth will average 2.6 percent per year over the next 20 years. At the same time, growth of the non-Hispanic working age population will slow to near zero, and new non-Hispanic entrants to the labor force will barely offset retiring Baby Boomers. As a result, the Hispanic share of total U.S. employment will rise from 16 percent in 2014 to 23 percent in 2034.

Other key findings include:

•     Immigration will play a key role in future U.S. employment growth. By 2020, labor force growth is expected to slow to the point that the annual change in the labor force is roughly equal to the amount of net migration.
•     Despite a generally positive long-term economic outlook for Latin American countries, the U.N. projects continuing net outmigration from the 10 Latin American countries and Puerto Rico that are the primary countries of origin of the foreign-born U.S. Hispanic population.
•     According to U.S. Census Bureau assumptions about future Hispanic net international migration, the number of foreign born Hispanics will grow from 22 million in 2014 to over 29 million in 2034, and the foreign-born share of the Hispanic population will fall slowly over this period – from 39.7% to 34.8%.
•     The number of Hispanics that speak Spanish in the home will rise from 36.9 million in 2014 to 55.4 million in 2034.
•     Higher levels of immigration are conducive to stronger U.S. economic growth, and there are credible scenarios for higher levels of Hispanic immigration than assumed in the study’s baseline forecast.

“The Hispanic population is a younger and faster growing segment of the population, while trends in the non-Hispanic population are heavily influenced by the aging baby-boomer generation that is moving into retirement,” said James Gillula, IHS economist and the study’s lead author. “The Hispanic population will play an increasingly significant role in future U.S. employment growth.”