Latino Independent Voters Lean Toward Trump While Overall Voter Preferences Hold Steady

Key Findings from Week 5:

1. Presidential update: Virtually no movement on the surface

• 60% of Latino voters support Kamala Harris. Harris’ support has trended between 59% and 61% for the past 3 weeks.
• 35% of Latino voters support Donald Trump. Trump’s support has trended between 35% and 36% for the past 3 weeks.

2. Although Harris leads, she trails Biden’s Latino support from this time in 2020

• October 6-12, 2020, NALEO Latino Weekly Tracking Poll (Week 6)
  • 68% of Latino voters supported Biden, 23% supported Trump
• Biden won 65% of the Latino vote in 2020 (CNN exit poll). At 60%, Harris is underperforming with Latinos

3. Independent Latino voters are breaking for Trump

• Intent to vote for “Independent/Other” Latino voters (neither Democrat nor Republican)
  • Week 3 (9/21-9/27): Harris 52%, Trump 34%, 14% undecided
  • Week 4 (9/28-10/4): Harris 45%, Trump 38%, 17% undecided
  • Week 5 (10/5-10/11): Harris 37%, Trump 46%, 18% undecided
• Net favorability (% favorable – % unfavorable)
  • Week 3 (9/21-9/27): Harris +2, Trump -29
  • Week 4 (9/28-10/4): Harris -5, Trump -24
  • Week 5 (10/5-10/11): Harris -10, Trump -8

CALIFORNIA VS. TEXAS SPOTLIGHT:
MAJOR LATINO STATES, DIFFERENT ELECTION LANDSCAPES
(Note: data points below reflect a combination of data from all weeks in the poll to date, covering 9/11/24-10/11/24)

4. Harris overperforms in California, while Trump over-indexes in Texas

• Intent to vote:
  • Harris: 59% Total, 65% CA, 56% TX
  • Trump: 35% Total, 30% CA, 39% TX
• Net favorability (% favorable – % unfavorable)
  • Harris: +27 Total, +35 CA, +22 TX
  • Trump: -19 Total, -27 CA, -17 TX

5. The economy is a unifying concern for both California and Texas Latino voters

• Cost of living/inflation is the #1 most important issue for Latino voters in both states, with 58% of Latino voters in both states rating this as a major issue.
• Jobs and the economy ranks as the #3 most important issue in California, and the #2 issue in Texas. Just over a third of voters in both states view jobs and the economy as a concern.

6. Beyond the economy, key issues differ between the two states

• Housing costs and affordability ranks as the #2 most important issue among California Latino voters (#6 in Texas)
• While abortion ranks in the top 5 in both states, Latino voters in Texas are more likely to rate it as an important issue (28% in TX vs. 23% for CA)
• Gun violence concerns are also elevated in Texas, ranking as the state’s #4 issue. 27% of Texas Latino voters consider it a major issue (vs. 22% for CA)
• Other issues more likely to be on Texas Latino voters’ minds:
  • Health care costs (26% in TX, 16% in CA)
  • Immigration reform for immigrants already here (20% in TX, 15% in CA)
  • Issues at the US-Mexico border (20% in TX, 15% in CA)
• Homelessness is far more likely to be an issue in CA (18% vs. 7% in TX)

The 2024 National Latino Tracking Poll will run for eight weeks, with weekly updates released every Monday. Each week, 500 Latino voters from across the country are surveyed on their voting intentions, key issues, healthcare concerns, and candidate favorability. The poll offers valuable insight into the evolving priorities of Latino voters as Election Day approaches.