Note to governor-elect of Puerto Rico: Exodus to the States accelerating.

Nearly a third now thinking of leaving, which would give new government fewer consumers to fuel growth and fewer taxpayers to balance the budget

Long before the people of Puerto Rico voted in their next set of leaders on Nov. 6, hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans had already voted.

With their feet.

The bulk of the island’s net population decline of 400,000 or so since the year 2000 are folks now living in Central Florida and elsewhere on the U.S. mainland, having run away from the island’s sluggish economy, poor education and high crime rate.

Judging from the latest Gaither International, WOSO Radio, CARIBBEAN BUSINESS weekly poll, the trend is likely to worsen before it improves.

The island wide representative survey of 693 adults (sampling error margin of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points) found the percentage of the population considering leaving the island began rising again in 2009, following several years of encouraging decline, and now stands at a highly discouraging 28%. Making matters worse, more than half of them are under 34 years old.

That would mean another million people leaving the island, out of today’s population of 3.5 million. To be sure, previous surveys have shown that not everyone who says they’re considering moving actually live up to that expectation. But enough have already left to warrant taking the pledge seriously, and to have almost a million people in Puerto Rico so disengaged and ready to sail, means they aren’t likely to contribute much to turning the ship around.

Re-engaging them and keeping them here will take an overhaul of the island’s social and economic condition, a task that now falls
largely on the shoulders of the new Popular Democratic Party leadership elected last week.

Fewer people on the island translates into fewer consumers to fuel growth and fewer taxpayers to solve the fiscal crisis. So this is a very big deal.

The poll asked respondents: “Have you considered or have been considering moving out of Puerto Rico?”

The vast majority (91%) stated they would move to the mainland U.S., while 5% said they would move elsewhere, and 4% didn’t know. In the States, most would move to Florida (30%), New York (20%) and Massachusetts (5%).

Whatever the new government’s plan to stem the tide, it had better act with a tremendous degree of urgency.

A stunning 69% of respondents would leave during the coming four year term. That includes 11% who said they would move in three or more years, 30% in 1-2 years, 15% between 6-12 months from now, and 13% in less than six months. The rest aren’t sure when they would leave.

A disproportionate number of those considering leaving continues to be the island’s higher-income, higher-educated, productive-age population, while older Puerto Ricans poll low in their intention to leave.

Young people, in particular, seem bent on leaving—53% of those 18-24 and 57% ages 25-34. Also weighing the move are 36% of those 35-44, 27% of those 45-54, 20% 55-64 and 13% of those 55 & older.

Well-educated respondents are likelier to consider moving: 36% of college graduates compared to 33% of those with high school diplomas, and 15% who didn’t graduate from high school.

Socioeconomic levels follow the same trend. While 38% of respondents with high incomes consider moving, 35% of those with middle incomes and 24% with low incomes plan to leave.

As has been the trend in the exodus since 2000, the island is growing older, poorer and less-educated.

The move to the States has become a self-reinforcing phenomenon. As many as 86% of those considering moving say they have family and friends who are already there, making it easier for the new migrants to make the transition and depart.

They leave, as always, to get away from the “economic situation in Puerto Rico” (44%) and the “general situation” on the island (25%), including crime (25%). They would leave in search of a “better quality of life” (36%), a “better job” (27%), and their “children’s education” (12%).

BY ALEX DÍAZ
For more information at http://www.caribbeanbusinesspr.com