October Same-Store Sales Jump.

Retail same-store sales excluding Walmart improved significantly in October, as shoppers expand their spending plans while they simultaneously retain the cautious shopping tactics they’ve used during the downturn, Retail Forward reports.

Sales-weighted same-store sales excluding Walmart increased 2.3% in October for the approximately 30 retailers—most of them apparel retailers—reporting monthly results today. That was better than the 0.9% gain last month and the 3.8% decline in October of 2008 for the same composite measure calculated without Walmart. Including Walmart, same-store sales were down 0.6% in October of 2008.

“October again showed positive signs from shoppers, although the improvement was less even among retailers compared with the back-to-school months. Households remain focused on shopping for needs and this kind of cautious shopping behavior will restrain the sales improvement we can expect in the coming months,” said Frank Badillo, Senior Economist at Retail Forward.

The results were led by stronger than average results among apparel and accessory stores and the few food, drug and mass retailers that report. Lagging were Department Stores. (For a list of the retailers reporting and their results, please follow this link: http://www.retailforward.com/retailintel/samestr_sales.pdf>

October’s results reflect an improving trend—albeit uneven—in shoppers’ intentions to spend. Spending plans showed some improvement in October from the prior month and last year, according to Retail Forward’s October ShopperScape survey):

* The percentage of shoppers planning to curb their near-term spending declined to 45% from 53% a year ago and 47% in September.

* The percentage of shoppers planning to spend about the same as a year ago increased to 47% from 39% a year ago and 44% in September.

* On the negative side, only nine percent of shoppers plan to increase their near-term spending compared with eight percent a year ago.

Despite the improving trend in their spending intentions, shoppers appear to remain just as focused as in recent months on using tactics to find good deals, limit their spending and trade down among brands and channels—although to a significantly lesser degree than late last year, according to the latest ShopperScape survey.

* Deal-seeking. The percentages of shoppers using deal-seeking tactics—such as taking advantage of good sales/deals, doing more price comparison shopping and using more coupons—held relatively steady or edged higher in October compared with May. But the percentages remain lower than August of 2008.

* Limiting spending. The percentages of shoppers using tactics to limit their spending—such as buying only things they need, buying fewer things or shopping less often—held mostly steady or edged higher in October compared with May. One exception is that the percentage of shoppers that said they were buying fewer luxury items declined to 24% from 29% in May. All the October percentages remain lower than August of 2008.

* Trading down. The percentages of shoppers trading down among brands and channels—such as buying less expensive versions of products, buying more store brands, or doing more shopping at discount and value retailers—held relatively steady or edged higher in October compared with May. But the percentages remain lower than August of 2008.

Looking ahead to the holiday, shoppers are wary about spending more than last year, but more shoppers are planning to spend the same as last year and fewer are planning to cut back on their spending.

* Only seven percent plan to spend more this year on holiday gifts—the same percentage as last October.

* Forty-three percent of shoppers say they plan to spend about the same amount as last year, which is significantly more than the 37% planning to spend the same amount in October 2008.

* Although 45% of shoppers say they are going to curb holiday spending, this percentage is significantly less than the 50% planning cut backs in October 2008.

* Shoppers are significantly more indecisive this year about how much they plan to spend on holiday gifts—42% don’t know how much they will spend and 20% don’t know how much of their budget they’ve spent so far.

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For more information at http://www.retailforward.com