Over Half a Million TV Spots Aired in 2004 Presidential Race.
August 7, 2004
The domination of recent media coverage by the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth’s advertising stands in stark contrast to the findings of a new study that shows that the group contributed a mere 739 airings to the over 500,000 spots broadcast so far in the 2004 presidential general election.
501,259 ads have been aired by John Kerry, George W. Bush, the Democratic National Committee, Media Fund, MoveOn, Sierra Club, and AFL-CIO in exactly 100 media markets since the March 3 beginning of the general election.
These results are among the findings of a new report from the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project that analyzed data provided by Nielsen Monitor-Plus. The report analyzes presidential campaign political television advertising in all 210 media markets across the nation.
“The Swift Boat Veterans have certainly received a huge bang for their buck,” says Professor Ken Goldstein, director of the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project and a professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “The effect of advertising is not only from direct exposure from the spot itself but from the news media coverage that can surround an ad. Ironically, others in the presidential election have spent monumentally more on advertising, and aired tens of thousands more ads. Arguably, fewer voters have been exposed to those messages and their impact is likely to be far less.”
The Swift Boat Veterans for Truth bought an average of 92 spots per day in the seven markets (Charleston, Dayton, Green Bay, LaCrosse, Toledo, Wassau, and Youngstown). that saw their first round of advertising. (The group has begun airing a new creative in the last few days.) Fewer than 6.5 million people, 2.1 percent of the population, live in these markets, meaning most of the people aware of the content of these ads have seen them in news media coverage, not in actual paid advertising.
Outside groups and soft money
Although the role of outside groups spending unregulated ‘soft money’ has been the focus of much discussion, more than one-fifth (22%) of MoveOn’s TV ads were paid for through its Political Action Committee (PAC) using regulated hard money, while 78% of MoveOn’s TV spots were paid for with soft money through the organization’s 527 fund since the Democratic convention.
Further, of the TV ads aired by the Club for Growth, a conservative group that has run ads attacking John Kerry, over 95% of the spots were paid for through its PAC using regulated hard money. And, needless to say, all television advertising paid for directly by the Bush and Kerry campaigns or by the political parties are now, by definition, hard money.
Prof. Ken Goldstein notes, “It is important to note that expenditures by outside groups are not necessarily using unregulated money. Consistent with recent campaign finance measures, groups are able to raise and spend regulated ‘hard’ monies. Indeed within 60 days of the general election all broadcast advertising will have to be using such hard monies.”
Advertising since the convention
Since officially receiving his party’s nomination on July 29, they Kerry campaign has been absent from the nation’s airwaves until August 20 when the campaign emerged to air a new ad that sought to refute charges made by Swift Boat Veterans for Truth.
Filling the void left by the Kerry campaign during this period, Democratic groups including The Media Fund, MoveOn and the Democratic National Committee, have aired more than 46,000 ads, outpacing the 37,000 ads aired by the Bush campaign and 1,800 ads attacking John Kerry paid for by the Club for Growth.
Since Kerry’s nomination in July, presidential campaign TV ads have appeared in a total of 93 markets, with the combined Democrats holding an advantage in 64 of them.
In nine of the top 10 most targeted markets, Kerry’s allies hold an advantage. This advantage is especially strong in Ohio, which has three of the four markets that saw the highest volume of advertising. Since the Democratic convention, markets in Ohio, Nevada, Florida and Wisconsin have been the most heavily targeted in terms of numbers of ads aired. In fact, Nevada has recently emerged as a key battleground state, with two of the top five media markets targeted by the campaigns and groups. Reno was the top market since the Democratic convention and Las Vegas was number five.
Although advertising in Colorado started later than elsewhere, recent waves of advertising indicate it has clearly emerged as a battleground state. Meanwhile, less emphasis has been placed on Missouri since the last report by Nielsen Monitor-Plus and The University of Wisconsin Advertising Project in July.
Top 10 Markets – Bush Campaign
July 30-August 23
(Since Democratic Convention)
1. Reno, NV
2. Tampa-St. Pete.-Sarasota, FL
3. Toledo, OH
4. Cleveland, OH
5. Cincinnati, OH
6. Albuquerque-Santa Fe, NM (tied)
Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, FL (tied)
8. Las Vegas, NV
9. Wausau-Rhinelander, WI
10. Burlington-Plattsburgh (for NH)
Top 10 Markets – Kerry Campaign
July 30-August 23
(Since Democratic Convention)
1. Toledo, OH
2. Green Bay-Appleton, WI
3. Wausau-Rhinelander, WI
4. Dayton, OH
5. La Crosse-Eau Claire, WI
6. Youngstown, OH
7. Charleston-Huntington, WV
8. N/A (ads only aired in 7 markets)
9. N/A
10. N/A
Top 10 Markets – Democratic Groups
July 30-August 23
(Since Democratic Convention)
1. Cleveland, OH
2. Toledo, OH
3. Reno, NV
4. Cincinnati, OH
5. Youngstown, OH
6. Columbus, OH
7. Las Vegas, NV
8. Dayton, OH
9. Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, FL
10. Philadelphia, PA
Top 10 Markets – Kerry/Dem. Groups
July 30-August 23
(Since Democratic Convention)
1. Toledo, OH
2. Cleveland, OH
3. Reno, NV
4. Cincinnati, OH
5. Youngstown, OH
6. Columbus, OH
7. Las Vegas, NV
8. Dayton, OH
9. Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, FL
10. Philadelphia, PA
Overall Top 10 Markets – Bush/Kerry/Dem. Groups
July 30-August 23
(Since Democratic Convention)
1. Reno, NV
2. Toledo, OH
3. Cleveland, OH
4. Cincinnati, OH
5. Las Vegas, NV
6. Columbus, OH
7. Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, FL
8. Youngstown, OH
9. Tampa-St. Pete.-Sarasota, FL
10. Dayton, OH
As campaigns gear up for the final few months, the latest patterns of advertising clearly indicate the structure of the emerging electoral battle.
“Ads can be a window into the war room,” Professor Goldstein notes. “Since Kerry’s nomination his allies have reduced the volume of advertising considerably in Arkansas and Missouri, and stopped advertising completely in Louisiana. Such a change implies that these states are no longer seen as potential pick-ups.”
Prof. Goldstein adds, “Similarly, the absence of advertising by Bush in Virginia and North Carolina, despite a small number of airings by the DNC, signals that the Bush campaign is confident in holding these states, as they are Louisiana. Nevertheless, the increased focus by both sides on Colorado, Arizona and Nevada, all of which Bush carried in 2000, show the states are still very much in play.”
“While there have been some small targeting changes and many, many states are still in play, Ohio continues to be the eye of the political storm,” Prof. Goldstein says.
These results are among the latest campaign 2004 findings from an ongoing study of political television advertising by Ken Goldstein, director of the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project and a professor in the university’s political science department.
These data include all advertising buys from July 30, 2004, through August 24, 2004. The University of Wisconsin Advertising Project (http://www.polisci.wisc.edu/tvadvertising/) is funded by the Pew Charitable Trusts. Goldstein has been analyzing trends in campaign and issues advertising since 1996.
Working with Nielsen Monitor-Plus, the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project will continue to release up-to-date information and analysis on both candidate and interest group advertising activity and spending throughout the 2004 elections. The Project will release comprehensive totals immediately after the election.
Source: Nielsen Monitor-Plus and The University of Wisconsin Advertising Project
