Random thoughts on a random election.
November 4, 2020
By Gonzalo López Martí http://lmmiami.com/
- Hispanics are not a monolithic voting block.
- Outside of South Florida Hispanics lean Dem.
- If and when they vote.
- Not yet in large enough quantities to change the landscape in Texas or California.
- Getting there though.
- Nothing we didn’t already know.
- Florida’s where the action’s at.
- The notorious swinging state.
- South Fla in particular is a total toss-up.
- My guess is there’ll be considerable dose of Bradley effect.
- On both sides.
- The president seems to have a considerable following in the Miami metro area.
- I don’t think it is massive.
- It is just loud.
- It might be an attempt to go out with a bang.
- I used to be a staunch never Trumper.
- I used to think he was terminally ill prepared for the job.
- I must admit I changed my mind.
- A bit.
- Somehow, the system has shown it has the antibodies to channel his energy.
- Whether you like it or not, there’s a perception among Hispanics that he was not that bad after all, which I can understand.
- More bark than bite.
- We were ready for massive deportations and we got <3% unemployment.
- He was going to do away with NAFTA but he just changed its name.
- Business as usual.
- We could argue about DACA or kids in cages but Hispanics are very cynical about these issues.
- Cruelty towards Latinos was normal for decades, under both parties.
- We’ve factored it in a long time ago.
- What took so long for CNN and the NYTimes to finally cover it?
- The Dems make the same mistake again and again.
- Dem campaigns are perennially tin-eared and condescending to Hispanics.
- I should know: I’ve worked for the Democratic party several times in several states throughout the last couple decades.
- You don’t appeal to someone who’s crossed the desert following a coyote or the Florida Strait floating on a inner tube and tell them they are a weak, vulnerable victim of capitalism.
- Capitalism is exactly what they risked their lives for (whatever capitalism is in their heads).
- Anyway.
- The options for SoFla Hispanics are uninspiring: a lunatic who will nevertheless keep the economy rolling and socialism at bay versus a senile grandpa figure surrounded by hipster commies such as AOC, whom I increasingly believe is a GOP plant.
- Uncle Joe would’ve obliterated Trump in 2016.
- The toothpaste’s out o the tube now.
- We’ll see.
- IMHO, the best scenarios to keep all factions at bay and a certain sense of convivial normalcy are:
A. a clear win by Uncle Joe with a strong opposition in Capitol Hill to contain the Dem “socialist agenda”.
B. Or, conversely, a narrow win by DJT with staunch Democratic checks & balances in House & Senate to prevent him from unleashing any potential autocratic impulses he might entertain, such as adding his mug to Mt. Rushmore or renaming states after his kids.
- In short: a symbolic POTUS with some emotional sway but little real power.
- The sign of a true democracy.
- If there’s anyone reading this who wants a strongman or strongwoman in the White House, I kindly invite them to migrate to their country of choice in Latin America.
- There’s plenty to choose from.