Second Generation Hispanics: Fueling Growth in the Youth Market (and Beyond) [INSIGHT]

It’s no secret that Hispanics are driving US population growth. But in recent years, the dynamics of that growth have changed. Ten to twenty years ago, young adults entering the US to look for work caused the Hispanic population to rise. Today, immigration has slowed due to the economy – but owing to high birth rates, the Hispanic population has continued its ascent.

Tr3s recently developed a new report, “The Latinization of America … A ‘Next Normal’ Exploration.” This analysis highlights the latest research on Hispanic Millennials’ contribution to the changing demographics of the United States, what life is like for the fast-growing second generation population, and new meanings of acculturation.

From that report, here are some key demographic insights on second generation Latinos:

A third of all Americans will be Latino in 2050, with growth fueled by the second generation. Hispanic population increases are expected to come from immigration and births in the US — but the majority will come from US births. The Census projects that from 2012 to 2050, the US-born Hispanic population will increase at 5 times the rate of foreign-born Hispanics. And while today the US-born group is about 65% larger than foreign-born, in 2050 there will be nearly 4 times more US-born Hispanics than foreign-born.
While Hispanic 12-24s are heavily US-born, those over 25 skew foreign-born – for now. In the past, the 18-34 demographic was heavily foreign-born. With immigration waning, however, the foreign-born segment is getting older. While Hispanics over 25 are still more likely to be foreign-born, the balances are tipping toward a US-born future. More than 300,000 US-born Latinos turn 25 each year.

The Hispanic 18-34 population is generationally diverse. Today, just over half of Hispanics 18-34 were born in the US – and they’re nearly evenly divided between the second and third generations. The foreign-born segment that was dominant in the past is now 47% of the 18-34 demographic. Among the 53% born in the US, just under half (47%) are second generation (and the rest are third generation).

A mega wave of second-generation Latinos is heading into the key advertiser demos. More than 90% of Hispanic kids under 11 were born in the US – and 6 million of them are second generation. As they get older, they will shape the market in new ways. Every year, nearly 550,000 second-generation Latinos are entering the teen demographic.

The second generation is already taking over the 18-34 demographic – and the pace is only going to pick up. Hispanics 18-24 skew heavily US-born, while more than half of 25-29s and 30-34s are foreign-born.  By 2020, 85% of 18-24s and 61% of 25-29s will be US-born (and 30-34s will still be more foreign-born (55%)).

A rising second generation doesn’t mean Spanish is dead. Second generation Hispanics do speak English at work and with friends, but they’re not giving up Spanish. At home, 7 out of 10 Hispanics 18-34 speak Spanish at least half the time.

Sources for “The Latinization of America … A ‘Next Normal’ Exploration”: Ipsos-OTX Tr3s Hispanic Adult Millennial Study (2012); Simmons (2011-2013); Pew Hispanic Center (2011/2012); U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey & Synovate Population Data (1980-2012); Nat’l Vital Statistics Reports (2011); Nielsen 2014 Population Data + NTIH Audience Data; Octagon “Cooltura” Panel Data & Adult Millennial Workshop Data (2007-2013); Guia Focus Group & In-Home Data (2012-2013)
Second Generation = the children of foreign-born Hispanic moms
Third Generation = the children of US-born Hispanic moms