Six nation survey looks at impact of upcoming U.S. Election on World.

As the United States gets ready to enter an election year, there are interesting differences in the perceptions of adults in the five largest European countries, especially compared to Americans, as to what the election may mean and how important it is. Two-thirds of Americans (66%) and over half of Italians (55%), Germans (52%) and Spaniards (51%) think the U.S. election is extremely or very important to people in other countries as do a plurality (43%) of British adults. The French, however, disagree, as just over one-third (38%) say the election is extremely or very important to other countries.

When it comes to importance within their own country, the French again stand out as just one in ten (11%) say the U.S. election will be extremely or very important to people in France. Obviously, an overwhelming majority in the U.S. (82%) believe this election will be extremely or very important in their country. Just about one third of Italians (37%), Spaniards (34%), Britons (33%) and Germans (30%) each think the U.S. election will be extremely or very important to people in their country.

These are some of the results of a International Herald Tribune/France 24/Harris Interactive survey conducted online by Harris Interactive among a total of 6,590 adults aged 16 to 64 within France, Germany, Great Britain, Spain, the United States, and adults aged 18 to 64 in Italy between November 1 and 14, 2007.

One of the interesting story lines with this U.S. election is the possibility of two first – a female president and a black president. Over half of adults in France (56%), Spain (56%), Germany (55%), and Italy (53%) as well as a plurality (43%) in Great Britain, believe that electing a woman as president would have a positive effect on the USA. Similar numbers in France (57%), Germany (56%), Italy (53%), Spain (51%) and Great Britain (36%) believe that electing a woman would have a positive effect on America’s relationship with other countries. The one exception is in the U.S. Just three in ten (29%) Americans believe electing a woman would have a positive effect on the USA while one-quarter (26%) say it would have a negative effect and 23 percent believe it would have equally positive and negative effects. When it comes to America’s relationship with other countries, just under one-quarter (23%) say a female president would have a positive effect, one-quarter (25%) an equally positive and negative effect and three in ten (31%) a negative effect.

Looking at the possibility of the first black president, the numbers are not as strong. Half of Spaniards (50%) and pluralities of French (49%), Italians (44%), Germans (43%) and Britons (43%) believe electing a Black man would have a positive effect on the USA. Again, Americans are less positive as just one-third (33%) say this would have a positive effect while 28 percent say the effect would be equally positive and negative. The numbers are similar for the effect this would have on America’s relationship with other countries. Pluralities in all five European countries (between 42% and 48%) believe the effect would be positive while just 28 percent of U.S. adults believe the effect would be positive on the relationship with other countries. In the U.S. and Great Britain, adults are more positive towards a black president while in the four other European countries, they are more positive towards a female president.

In looking at who would make the best U.S. president (among 10 listed candidates) Hillary Clinton is the top choice in all six countries. Barack Obama is second in France and Germany and tied for second with Rudy Giuliani in the U.S. Rudy Giuliani comes in second in Italy, Spain, and Great Britain. When it comes to who will actually win the 2008 Presidential election, Hillary Clinton is again on top – in fact, over half of Italians (51%) believe she will win. The only other candidate in double digits in any of the countries is Rudy Giuliani and 11 percent of Americans believe he will actually win the election.

Looking at the position of the U.S. in the world under President Bush, there is a consensus – the position of the U.S. is weaker in the world today then it was at the beginning of the Bush presidency. In fact, Americans are the ones leading this charge as almost three in five (58%) of them say weaker, followed by 57 percent of British adults and over half of Italians (53%) and Germans (52%). Just under half (49%) of French adults and 46 percent of Spaniards believe the same.

The new president, whoever he or she might be, inherits a good deal of international concerns. As to the most urgent foreign policy issue for the new president, for adults in five of the countries, Iraq comes out as the top issue. Italy is the exception as Italians believe the Middle East settlement is the most urgent issue, followed by Iran. Specifically on Iraq, majorities in France (55%) and Spain (54%) and just under half in Italy (48%) believe the new American president should withdraw all American troops from Iraq. Those in Great Britain, Germany and the U.S. are split as to whether they should withdraw the American troops or reduce the presence of troops without completely withdrawing them.

The role the new president should play is one where those in Europe agree on one idea, while those in the U.S. feel a little differently. Two-thirds or more in the five European countries (between 65% and 77%) believe the U.S. president should be an equal voice among all western leaders. In the U.S., just under half (46%) also agree with this idea, but one-third of Americans (34%) believe the new president should be the leader of the Western world. This new president also has an important role in ensuring peace among the nations. Majorities in Italy (70%), the U.S. (61%), Great Britain (53%) and Spain (52%) as well as pluralities in Germany (48%) and France (44%) say the U.S. has an extremely or very important role in ensuring peace among the nations of the world.

One reason the U.S. needs to have such an important role is many believe the U.S. poses a threat to world peace A majority in Spain (56%) and pluralities in France (49%), Great Britain (48%) and Germany (48%) as well as 37 percent in Italy believe the U.S. poses a major threat to world peace. Even one-quarter (28%) in the U.S. believe the U.S. poses a major threat while 27 percent of Americans say the U.S. poses a minor threat to world peace.

So What?

As the U.S. gets ready to vote in the first caucuses and primaries early next month, it is not just Americans who are looking at the results of the election. Europeans are also focused in and believe the impact is not only at least somewhat important to their countries, but also to people in the world as a whole. The foreign policy issues the next president will have to address are numerous, and potentially growing in number. Europeans also have ideas as to what issues are most urgent. If the next president wants to strengthen a position in the world that is uniformly believed to be weak, he or she may want to listen to those from other countries as well.

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