Some Urban Hispanic Voters Leaving Democratic Party – But Not For GOP.

In the 85 metro markets surveyed regularly by The Media Audit there is a pronounced shift from 2001 and 2003 among Hispanic voters.

“In 2001, 38.5 percent of adult Hispanics surveyed said they affiliated with the Democratic Party. By 2003 that percentage had dropped to 35.4,” says Bob Jordan, president of International Demographics, Inc., which produces The Media Audit.

The percentage of Hispanics who said they affiliated with the Republican Party was relatively stable at 14.8 percent in 2001 and 14.9 percent in 2003. Hispanic Independents increased from 30.8 percent to 32.5 percent during the same period.

“The 85 markets we survey have an aggregate adult population of more than 130 million and an aggregate Hispanic population of approximately 19 million,” says Jordan,” Because of the size of these aggregate numbers a change of more than 3 percent, as the Democratic Party experienced, must be seen as very significant. The increase in Independents (1.7 percentage points) is also significant. The GOP affiliation change is not significant.” Although The Media Audit is not a national survey its results track national findings.

Six-Year Trend

Over the past six years,” says Jordan, “there have been significant changes, both up and down, among Hispanic Democrats and Hispanic Independents. The Hispanic GOP has varied very little during this same period. However, the Hispanic GOP numbers reflect a minimal but steady trend. In 1998, 13.5 percent of Hispanic adults affiliated with the GOP. In 2003 that figure had climbed to 14.9. Not much progress, but a trend nevertheless.”

Jordan speculates another current trend among Hispanics may also be of significant consequence for the political parties. “In the past few years, Hispanics have been spreading out across the country. The greatest concentrations are still in Los Angeles, New York City, Miami, and Chicago. But, there are also significant Hispanic populations in dozens of other metropolitan areas and they are growing rapidly,” says Jordan.