The Demographic Destiny of the Next Workforce

By  Tony Coles – Executive Leader | Board Director | Strategic Growth & Market Expansion | Translating Culture into Competitive Advantage

Last week, I wrote about how future employees and future customers are becoming the same person, and why that shift matters for leaders. This week, I want to go a level deeper into a truth too many organizations still underestimate:

Demographic trends are not predictions. They are certainties.

Demographic trends tell us exactly who our employees, our customers, and our communities will be 10–20 years from now. Leaders who ignore these signals often find themselves building teams, cultures, and business strategies for a world that no longer exists.

The American workforce of 2035 isn’t “emerging.” It’s already taking shape.

Birth rates are falling and talent shortages are rising

Globally, fertility rates have been declining for decades and in the United States, the drop has been even more pronounced. Combine this with an aging population, and the trend line is clear:

There will be fewer workers entering the labor market.

Even in the age of AI, this means:

• Competition for talent will intensify
• Retaining high performers becomes as important as recruiting them
• Organizations relying on large early-career pipelines will feel pressure first
• Upskilling and internal mobility will shift from optional to essential

For companies, including those of us in media, marketing, and advertising, this means the fight for attention is expanding just as the pool of available workers is contracting.

Many leaders are still planning for a pipeline that no longer exists. Others are banking on AI to close the gap. Neither will be true for most organizations.

We are experiencing rapid racial and ethnic shifts

Our population is becoming younger, more diverse, and more urban. This shift is not happening gradually. It is happening rapidly and is our reality.

By 2035:

• Younger age cohorts, especially those under 30, will be overwhelmingly plural
• No single racial or ethnic group will make up a dominant majority
• The fastest-growing talent segments will be Black, Hispanic, Asian, and multiracial
• Growth markets will shift geographically and culturally

As I stressed last week, understanding these shifts is not a DEI conversation. This is a business imperative. It impacts talent, retention, product design, customer experience, and long-term competitiveness.

If your workforce doesn’t reflect the communities and customers you serve, you won’t have the insights needed to win in those markets.

Gen Z is the most diverse and values-driven generation in American history

Gen Z is already reshaping the workplace with expectations previous generations didn’t have:

• Transparency
• Purpose
• Psychological safety
• Flexibility
• Clear pathways for growth

They are also reshaping the marketplace with growing influence over America’s media consumption and purchasing power.

And by 2035, they will make up the dominant share of the workforce.

Leaders who thrive with Gen Z won’t be the ones who try to change them, but the ones who evolve their leadership systems to meet this new reality.

Seven things leaders need to rethink

These demographic truths about employees and customers should already be influencing leadership decisions. Seven areas that require a different lens:

• How you recruit
• How you retain
• How you develop leaders
• How you design culture
• How you define the customer of the future
• How you message your brand
• How you build succession pipelines

The mistake many companies make is planning for the workforce they remember, instead of the workforce that’s coming.

A governance lens: why this matters in the boardroom

Demographics shape needs, expectations, and the types of support required.

In my nonprofit governance work, I’ve seen firsthand how demographic shifts alter demand, participation, and the strategic bets organizations must make. Boards who understand these shifts make better decisions, not because they have better intentions, but because they have better data.

Demographics directly impact your talent pipeline, your customer base, and your growth strategy.

Ignoring them is not just a cultural risk. It’s a fiduciary one.

What leaders should be asking right now

What demographic truths should your leadership team be planning around today?

Demographics don’t wait for leadership alignment. Boards and executives who plan around these realities now will be the ones best positioned to compete in 2035 and beyond.