The Fallout of the Venezuelan Vote: A Community at a Crossroads

By Gabriela ‘Gaby’ Alcantara-Diaz, Founder and President, Semilla Multicultural

As a follow-up to my previous #DecodingLatinoVoter editorial, the current political landscape has placed Venezuelan U.S. citizens—many of whom helped elect Trump—at the center of an unfolding crisis impacting their communities. The same Venezuelan American diaspora that rallied behind Trump, drawn to his anti-socialist rhetoric, now faces the consequences of his shifting policies, particularly regarding immigration protections.

A Global Diaspora with Local Political Consequences

Venezuelan Americans are part of a larger global exodus, with over 7 million Venezuelans displaced worldwide, making it one of the largest refugee diasporas in modern history—second only to Syria. The bulk of this migration has impacted Latin America, Spain, and the United States, with the U.S. emerging as a key destination for Venezuelan asylum seekers and economic migrants.

Within the U.S., Venezuelan Americans represent one of the fastest-growing and most dynamic immigrant groups, with a 263% increase in their population between 2010 and 2022 (Pew Research Center, 2023). This rise is part of a broader trend, where the Venezuelan population in the U.S. has grown substantially, and now represents one of the most influential immigrant communities. Their economic and political impact is undeniable, shaping industries, small business ownership, and wealth-building strategies across key markets. While South Florida remains the epicenter, Venezuelans are also making their mark in Texas and the Northeast, fueling entrepreneurial growth and redefining economic influence in their communities.

A Thriving, Educated, and Entrepreneurial Community

According to a 2021 Pew Research Center study, 54% of Venezuelan immigrants aged 25 and older hold at least a bachelor’s degree, far exceeding the national average for U.S. Hispanics (20%). This high level of education has contributed to their economic success, with median personal earnings among Venezuelan Americans standing at $31,200, slightly above the U.S. Hispanic median of $30,000. For full-time, year-round workers, earnings reach $40,000, matching overall U.S. Hispanic income levels.

However, when it comes to homeownership, only 45% of U.S.-born Venezuelans own homes, compared to 51% of all U.S. Hispanics. This lower rate reflects the relative newness of the Venezuelan diaspora, with many still in the process of building financial stability and navigating immigration-related challenges (Pew Research Center, 2021).

Yet, the true key to their financial success lies in their entrepreneurial spirit. Venezuelans have built a thriving small business ecosystem, particularly in Florida and Texas, creating opportunities that lead to long-term, multigenerational wealth. Their economic contributions are not just about personal prosperity but about community empowerment and sustainability.

Political Disillusionment: From Trump to Uncertainty

For many Venezuelan Americans, Trump was seen as a political savior—a leader who promised to take a hard stance against Nicolás Maduro’s authoritarian regime. His anti-socialist messaging resonated with a community that had fled economic collapse and dictatorship. But today, that same community is grappling with the fallout of their political allegiance.

Trump’s decision to rescind Temporary Protected Status (TPS) extensions for Venezuelans has left thousands vulnerable. As the Miami Herald reported:

“The Trump administration has eliminated deportation protections for hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans in the United States, making them subject to deportation and unable to work legally in the U.S. starting in April 2025.”

Many Venezuelans who previously abandoned their asylum cases in favor of TPS now find themselves in legal limbo. As another Miami Herald article states:

“A significant number of Venezuelans with TPS were convinced by immigration lawyers to abandon their lengthy or stalled political asylum cases in favor of TPS, which now leaves them vulnerable to deportation.”

The disillusionment is real. What was once a strong pro-Trump voting bloc is now facing a stark reality—his immigration policies have put thousands at risk of deportation, jeopardizing the stability they fought so hard to achieve.

“In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump won the vote in Miami-Dade County, helped largely by the Hispanic vote, including naturalized Venezuelan Americans. That’s one reason why Ferro and many others here say they’re shocked and disappointed.

‘Beyond betrayed,’ she said. ‘They used us. During the campaign, the elected officials from the Republican Party, they actually told us that he was not going to touch the documented people. They said, “No, it is with undocumented people.”‘
Carlos Pereira, a Venezuelan American who lives in Doral, says many of his friends and neighbors are frantic about the impending policy change. ‘They’re frustrated,’ he said. ‘They’re scared, they (take) cover, hide.’ For them, he says eliminating TPS ‘would be a tragedy.’” — “Beyond Betrayal: Venezuelans in Florida Are Angry at Trump Immigration Policy,” NPR, February 4, 2025, by Greg Allen.

Midterm Election Impact: Local and Statewide Shifts, Not a National Gamechanger

Venezuelan Americans, while growing in political influence, do not yet have the numbers to be a decisive factor in national elections like the 2026 midterms—at least not directly. Their impact is far more localized, particularly in Florida, Texas, and parts of the Northeast.

• State & Local Elections: In Florida, where Venezuelans are concentrated (especially in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Orange Counties), their potential political shift could influence state legislative races, city mayoral elections, and local referendums.
• GOP Risk in South Florida: If disillusioned Venezuelan Americans reduce their support for Republican candidates, it could narrow GOP margins in Miami-Dade and Broward Counties, making some congressional and state legislative races more competitive.
• No Immediate Party Flip: While frustration with Trump’s immigration policies may drive some Venezuelan voters away from the GOP, this does not necessarily mean a full shift to the Democratic Party. Many Venezuelan Americans still hold conservative economic and foreign policy views, making them swing voters rather than loyal partisans.
• Long-Term Question Mark: If immigration policy continues to be a defining issue for Venezuelan voters, and Republicans fail to address their concerns, there is potential for political realignment—but that would take years, not one election cycle. The impact will likely depend on how both parties engage with the Venezuelan community beyond rhetoric and into policy action.

Final Thought: A Community to Watch, Not Yet a Kingmaker

Venezuelan Americans are politically engaged, highly educated, and economically influential—but their electoral power remains concentrated in specific regions, mainly Florida. While their votes could influence state-level and district-level outcomes, they are not yet a national political force. However, their frustrations with immigration policy and economic security will make them a key voting bloc to watch—especially in battleground states.

Their vote mattered. Their voices matter. But their long-term political home? That remains uncertain.