The Hiring Problem in 2026 Isn’t Talent. It’s Decisions.

By Adrian von Dewall = Managing Partner | Executive Search | Boyden

If hiring felt harder last year, it wasn’t your imagination.

2025 didn’t close the market. It removed the margin for error. In 2026, recruitment won’t reward activity or optimism. It will reward judgement. And organisations still waiting for conditions to improve may discover the conditions were never the issue.

What the data actually shows (not just the feeling)

• Labour markets are cautious, not collapsing

Germany ended 2025 in a state of restraint, not retreat. According to Eurostat, the job vacancy rate across the euro area fell to around 2.1% by Q3 2025, down from previous quarters. Germany followed the same pattern, sitting at roughly 2.4%.

That matters.

A falling vacancy rate doesn’t signal panic. It signals selectivity. Companies didn’t stop hiring. They stopped hiring casually.

• Vacancies still exist, just not everywhere

At the same time, Germany still had over one million unfilled roles during 2025. That headline number confuses a lot of people.

“How can vacancies be high if vacancy rates are falling?”

Because the market isn’t uniform.

Some roles disappeared quickly. Others became stubbornly hard to fill. What we’re seeing isn’t collapsing demand, but fragmented demand. Talent exists, but alignment between role, leadership expectation and reality is slipping.

That misalignment is where searches slow down, not because candidates are missing, but because conviction is.

• Skills scarcity isn’t theoretical

Despite softer vacancy rates and flat employment, structural skill shortages remain in technology, healthcare and specialist functions.

This creates one of the most frustrating dynamics I see regularly.

Companies need talent.

Candidates exist.

But processes fail to convert interest into outcomes.

Not because people aren’t qualified, but because expectations inside organisations aren’t aligned.

• Employment levels are flat, and that changes behaviour

Destatis data shows that employment levels in Germany plateaued and edged down slightly across 2025, month on month. No dramatic drops. No recovery surge either.

This is labour market inertia.

In these conditions, leaders become cautious. Hiring committees debate longer. Job descriptions get rewritten mid-process. Decisions are deferred “until things feel clearer”.

They rarely do.

What this looked like on the ground in 2025
I can count the number of times in the last quarter someone said to me:

“We have the budget and the urgency, but we can’t agree on what we really need.”
That sentence explains more stalled searches than any labour market chart ever will. Roles drift. Briefs change. Good candidates disappear quietly. Meanwhile, candidates, especially senior ones, are behaving differently.

One executive told me in October:

“I’m not looking for a job. I’m looking for clarity.”
She declined two offers. Not over compensation. Over leadership ambiguity.

Another told me in December:

“I won’t start somewhere that still hasn’t decided who the role reports to.”
Data won’t capture that moment. But it shows up later as longer hiring cycles and unfilled mandates.

The uncomfortable disconnect

• Boards want transformation hires.
• Teams want stability hires.
• Candidates want clarity and growth.

When those expectations collide, most organisations do the easiest thing.

• They pause.

In a flat labour market, pausing feels safe. In 2026, it will be expensive. Because candidates with options don’t wait for alignment to emerge. They choose environments where decisions are already made.

Four predictions for 2026 (based on what I’m already seeing)

• Hiring won’t spike. It will discriminate

Fewer roles. Higher stakes. The appointments that land will be the ones organisztions genuinely understand.

• Clarity will outperform compensation

Pay opens doors. Direction closes deals.

• Skills intelligence will beat job titles

Rigid profiles will loosen. Capability will matter more than symmetry.

International and multi-disciplinary talent becomes a decision advantage

Demographics don’t negotiate. This shift is inevitable, not optional.

A final reality check

Recruitment used to be about speed or volume. Not anymore 👀

2026 will reward organisations that:

• decide sooner, not later
• Dire for impact, not replacement
• Treat candidates as discerning, not desperate

Leaders who think recruiting is just a pipeline problem will discover it’s a leadership problem.

And the organisations waiting for “better market conditions” will watch others make clearer choices faster. Because if 2025 taught us anything, it’s this:

the talent hasn’t left, but patience has.