U.S. Local Advertising Revenues to Reach $144.9B in 2014.

In its U.S. Local Media Annual Forecast (2009-2014), BIA/Kelsey forecasts the U.S. local advertising market to reach $144.9 billion in 2014, representing a modest compound annual growth rate of 2.2 percent from 2009. A closer look at the forecast period reveals, following a significant contraction in 2009, local media spending is expected to be slow through 2011, with meaningful recovery beginning in 2012.

“The general economic conditions worsened during 2009 causing advertising dollars to remain on the sidelines as businesses — large and small, local, regional and national — reined in spending levels,” said Neal Polachek, president, BIA/Kelsey. “Even with improvements in the overall economy, we do not anticipate a rapid recovery among traditional media over the forecast period, because we believe the structural change in the local media industry has accelerated.”

Indeed, a steady shift toward digital media continues. BIA/Kelsey forecasts spending on traditional media to decline from $115 billion in 2009 to $108.2 billion in 2014 (CAGR of -1.2 percent). During the same period, spending on online/interactive media is projected to grow from $15.2 billion to $36.7 billion (CAGR of 19.3 percent).

BIA/Kelsey reports among the key drivers of this year’s forecast are:

* Larger than previously forecast declines in newspapers and direct mail

* Slowing growth of the interactive/online sector, including search, display and classifieds

* A further ramp-up in political advertising, due to the recent U.S. Supreme Court decision, which will benefit the traditional television and radio sectors, as well as the interactive and direct mail sectors

More Than Half of All Ad Spending Is ‘Local’

The forecast reveals 55 percent of all ad spending is with local media, defined in this forecast as spending by small and medium-sized businesses and national advertisers or regional advertisers making local buys. In 2009 total U.S. ad spending was $235.6 billion (based on BIA/Kelsey’s estimate of the local segment and estimates by several market forecasters focused on national spending). Of that, BIA/Kelsey estimates $130.2 billion was spent on local ad buys, with $105.4 billion attributed to national advertising.

For more information at http://www.bia.com