Global Ad Market to recover in 2021
Media owners’ advertising revenues will decrease by $42 billion in 2020, from $582 billion to $540 billion, as advertising spending shrinks due to the severe economic recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, as GDP is expected to contract between -5% and -12% across the world’s largest markets. Global advertising revenues will decrease by an estimated -7%, as the heavy, double-digit decline of linear ad sales (linear TV, print, linear radio, OOH, cinema), -16% to $238 billion, will be mitigated by the stability of digital formats: +1% to $302 billion.
Last week’s Cog Blog post, on what the agency of the post-pandemic future might look like generated some interesting feedback. This week’s post tries to provide some suggestions (answers would be presumptive) to the points raised, based purely on my own experience. I’ve grouped these around four of the most popular topic areas. By Brian Jacobs
The expansive role of the chief marketing officer is filled with possibility, but many CMOs lack the confidence to truly engage with the C-suite. How can CMOs build confidence to elevate their influence and fully realize their role’s potential?
Marketers, looking for increased productivity and transparency in their media investments, are calling for sweeping changes and improvements in the media ecosystem. This includes transformative changes to the upfront marketplace.
On April 16, the National Association of Hispanic Journalist (NAHJ) board announced, in a press release posted on NAHJ.org, that it had voted to cancel national board elections and extend, for another year, the terms of board members, including those of the president and the rest of the executive board. This move encompassed both elected and appointed board members.
The 2020 Edelman Trust Barometer Spring Update: Trust and the Covid-19 Pandemic shows a significant rise in Americans’ trust in both government and business. Since January, trust in government has risen nine points, and trust in business has risen six points.
With Women’s History Month upon us, there’s no better time to recognize that efforts to increase gender diversity in the boardroom are finally beginning to yield results.
Throughout the Covid-19 pandemic, consumers have been highly attentive to companies’ concrete actions, especially regarding health protocols, reliability and pricing. When choosing vendors and products, people care about what companies do, not just what they say. Advertising and social media messaging thus should tightly align with the material steps a company takes in the marketplace.
The Culture Marketing Council: The Voice of Hispanic Marketing (CMC) announced the 2020 Culture Account Planning Excellence (CAPE) award winners, originally created in partnership with HispanicAd.com. Alma took top honors with its Pepsi Campaign, which won Best in Show as well as a Gold award for Best Cultural Insight. LERMA/, MediaCom, Republica Havas, Urias Communications and Wieden + Kennedy also were among the agencies honored.
BOTTOM LINE: While its likely not totally shocking at this point, we think that April increasingly feels like the bottom, and the linearity of the quarter appears to be much better in May, with expectations for continued rebound into June. Our and the Street’s 2Q20 estimates are largely in the range of where the companies indicated they were pacing for the quarter in April/early May, and our expectations are that there is likely upside to revenue numbers of at least 4-7%. We will be waiting to see how June shapes up, as well as color around 2H outlook before refining our estimates, but numbers are likely going higher.
Many chief marketers are likely to have a disappointing upcoming year as 84 percent surveyed by the CMO Council say their compensation is tied to business performance improvements in 2020. Not surprisingly, take home pay will likely be less due to the severe economic impact of the global pandemic.
Whether by necessity or ingenuity, minority-owned small businesses may be giving us an early sign of how US businesses will adapt in the wake of COVID-19. These businesses are experimenting with new ways of working to ensure their employees’ safety, offering monetary relief to employees and community members, and introducing new services such as free delivery to those who need it.
As Millennials reach a new stage of life – the oldest among them will turn 39 this year – a clearer picture of how members of this generation are establishing their own families is coming into view. Previous research highlights not only the sheer size of the Millennial generation, which now surpasses Baby Boomers as the largest, but also its racial and ethnic diversity and high rates of educational attainment. This research also notes that Millennials have been slower than previous generations to establish their own households.
Consumer spending tumbled a record 16.4% in April as #COVID19 continues to impact the U.S. economy. KPMG Senior Economist Ken Kim breaks down today’s record decline and whether there are signs that perhaps April be the trough in consumer spending.
As 2019 was a great year for media sales, many sales managers were expecting similar revenue growth in 2020, not including political ad estimates. And then coronavirus arrived. Over the past two months, revenue has dramatic hit. Many sales managers are expecting to see up to a 50% drop in revenue. In this COVID-19 Special Report media sales managers share their thought about the current state of media sales. And it’s not all doom and gloom! Many are optimistic about the economic recovery awaiting the country in coming months.
At Kantar we’ve spent much of the last few weeks thinking about the here and now, supporting our clients on immediate marketing strategies and planning for the next few months. But it’s now more important than ever to look further ahead; and for media and advertising, to imagine what scenarios the future might hold. by Jane Ostler – Global Head of Media, Insights / Kantar
